Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
A joyful atmosphere prevails in the election campaign office of the Christian Democratic Union. The surprising success of the ruling party in the parliamentary elections which took place with a high activity of voters (71.5%) was unexpected even for the most optimistic supporters of Angela Merkel. Under the management of the German “iron lady” the party showed its best result in the last 20 years – it gained almost 42% of the votes. The CDU and the CSU lacked only four seats to get an absolute majority in the parliament – it would be a repetition of Konrad Adenauer’s success and the absence of the need to establish a coalition with other parties.
The obvious outsiders of the current elections are the partners of the CDU in the ruling coalition – the Free Democratic Party (FDP). They couldn’t overcome the 5% barrier to get into the Bundestag. The German liberals failed to get to the parliament. The minister of economy Philipp Rosler and the head of the Foreign Ministry Gido Westerwelle stayed outside the new parliamentary convocation.
The Greens receded from their positions, as they got only about 8%, in 2008 they gained 10.7%, even though half a year ago the party was very popular and many observers stated it was on the path to becoming “the people’s party.” Their negative result was influenced by their unpopular tax policy, which was required by the Green’s program and a row over its members who supported the idea of cancellation of punishment for pedophilia in the 1970-1980s.
The German Communists (Die Linke) got 8.6% of the votes, while in 2009 they gained 12%. However, they are doomed to play the role of constant opposition, and the lost 2.5% doesn’t influence their prospect of participation in the ruling coalition: nobody would consolidate with Die Linke.
There were surprises as well: Alternative für Deutschland Party (AfD) successfully performed for the first time; actually it is the CDU’s own flesh and blood, which has its own anti-globalist view on the European policy of Germany, including the problem of the eurozone. AfD was established in 2013 and united prominent economists, lawyers, and journalists. It stands for rejection of the euro in Germany and a return to the national currency – the Deutchemark. The party was very close to overcoming the 5% barrier and get seats in the parliament.
So, in the end the 18th convocation of the German Bundestag involves four political forces: the CDU/CSU (41.5%, 311 mandates), SDPG (25.7%, 192 mandates), Die Linke (8.6%, 64 mandates) and the Greesn (8.4%, 63 mandates).
As the Christian Democrats failed to gain an absolutely majority of votes, they will have to create a coalition with one of the other parties.
A union with a left-wing party is excluded. The more realistic prospect is a union between the CDU/CSU and the Greens. However, there are serious obstacles as well. The most likely variation is a coalition with the Socialists.
