The third term of Ilham Aliyev

Viktoria Panfilova, NG’s observer exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Today Azerbaijan is electing its president. Is there doubt who is going to win the elections? If anyone has any doubts, here is information on the poll conducted by the monitoring center Ryai (Opinion): 84.7% of respondents state that they will support the current president Ilham Aliyev.

For sure the opposition will make a statement on violations during the elections. Firstly, violations occur during all voting processes, and usually in favor of the authorities. Secondly, it seems to be the only way to sustain an image. It cannot reject protesting. It’s like they would declare themselves politically invalid and have no answer to the question why they have decided to participate in the elections. Thus, the opposition will speak about falsifications, file suits to courts, probably foreign courts.

The head of the Election Monitoring and Democracy Teaching Center, Anar Mamedli, told journalists that Azerbaijan had no conditions to provide an effective election campaign. Only the head of the state Ilham Aliyev had such opportunities. And that actually he was supported by the majority of participants who were supposed to be rivals. But the real competitors for Aliev – Dzhamil Hasanli and Igbala Agazade – had much worse conditions for conducting the campaign, even though officially they were not restricted.

The opposition can also point at the fact that the U.S. decided not to send a special group of observers to Azerbaijan and charged employees of its embassy in Baku to monitor the elections. However, there are many people who will register violations without an American special group. The chairman of the Central Election Commission, Mazakhir Panakhov, said that up to 40,000 observers would monitor the elections, 1300 of them were foreigners. 50 powerful international institutes sent their representatives to Azerbaijan: ODIHR/OSCE, PA OSCE, the European Parliament, the CIS Mission, TURCPA and others. Foreign observers in the elections represent about 100 countries of the world, including Russia. The State Duma delegation is headed by the chairman of the CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Compatriots Committee, Leonid Slutsky.

However, the opposition has its own course which they will follow as long as they can. Dzhamil Hasanli is the only candidate from the National Council of Democratic Forces. They have already accused the authorities of the fact that they are not ready to hold free elections. He also announced that he would fight, until he won, but only by constitutional measures. At the same time, even his supporters don’t believe in the scenario. Few days ahead of the elections even the chairman of the meeting committee of NCDF, Asef Guliyev, resigned.

So, the intrigue was killed at the grassroots when the CEC of Azerbaijan refused the film director Rustam Ibragimbekov to take part in the elections. He was the initial candidate from the NCDF. Of course Ibragimbekov couldn’t become a favorite of the election campaign, but it would be more interesting to follow the elections.

Now the majority of votes will be given to the most prominent politician of the country Ilham Aliyev. He will gain people’s trust for the next 5 years.

His election campaign was based on demonstration of successes which Azerbaijan achieved under his management. He visited regions of the republic, participated in opening new schools, children facilities, and cultural facilities, launched new enterprises, and so on.

However, Ilham Aliyev will still have old challenges in the new term. First of all, it is the Karabakh problem. Nobody can say that it will be settled in the near future. The situation remains quite difficult; the opponents of Azerbaijan still follow the absolutely different position.

Secondly, Ilham Aliyev will have to make major energy projects effective, as they should bring not only economic revenues, but also political benefits to confirm regional leadership of Azerbaijan.

Thirdly, the Azeri President will have to make internal distribution of oil and gas revenues effective to prevent the dangerous process of the wealth divide and even a regional divide.

Fourthly, even though it sounds strange, he should think about appearance of a constructive rational opposition. And it is not about democratic traditions and patterns. The historic experience shows that the most developed countries exist under a competition between various political forces which have one common goal – the progress and the prosperity of the state.