By Vestnik Kavkaza
The US unfroze Iranian assets worth $8 billion yesterday. This was one of the results of the Geneva talks between Tehran and the foreign ministers of six mediating states (Russia, US, China, UK, France, Germany). According to agreements, Iran will slow its nuclear program down, and let international experts make more scrupulous inspections. The West will ease economic sanctions against Iran.
US President Barack Obama warned that failure to fulfill obligations in six months would be punished with the restoration of sanctions and the implementation of new ones. The US, Europe and China are optimistic about the agreements reached. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted that the agreements will enforce the international system of nuclear non-proliferation, guarantee peace and stability in the Middle East.
Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, said: “This is important but this has only postponed the problem, this is just a tactical achievement. Iran did not get what it wanted, there was no lifting of sanctions in the petrochemical and bank fields. Instead, only assets of the shah in the US will be unfrozen, this means $3 billion. US officials say that Iran will gain access to $7 billion. At the same time, Iran loses about $50 billion annually because of the sanctions.”
According to Vladimir Yevseyev, major success will only happen if Iran takes the responsibility to follow rules of the additional protocol of the IAEA agreement. “However, what has been achieved is not a breakthrough, it is just postponement of the terms of trust for six months. It will only put the problem aside, it is not strategic success. This is what causes concerns because if the problem gets moved aside without being solved, it may not find solutions at all in the future,” fears the expert.
The agreement the six mediators and Iran reached became the main topic of discussions among Israeli political, military and journalist officials. Vestnik Kavkaza reporter in Israel Peter Lyukimson said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the document: “For the first time, the world’s leading states have put up with uranium enrichment in Iran, ignoring decisions of the UN Security Council they initiated themselves. They lift sanctions for Iran in exchange for cosmetic concessions that could be won back in a few weeks.”
According to Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the deal is an enormous diplomatic win of Iran because it achieved all the goals: saved the right for uranium enrichment, saved all centrifuges and the nuclear reactor in Arak and eased sanctions greatly. Lieberman continued that Israel was free from any obligations in the treaty and believes that ‘all options remain open’ (the option to hit Iranian nuclear facilities that is). The deal in Geneva, emphasized Lieberman, created a totally new political reality in the Near and Middle East and the world as a whole because it had direct impact on interests of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Egypt and Turkey. Although it was not said directly, Lieberman gave a clear hint that all the said states could form the anti-Iranian coalition.
“We have woken up in a reality today, where a very, very bad agreement was signed. This agreement gives Iran what it has been striving for, a significant easing of sanctions but preserves the most important elements of their nuclear program. If a nuclear briefcase explodes in New York or Madrid in five years, it would be the direct result of the agreement signed this morning. It is important for the world to know that Israel will not support the agreement threatening existence of our country,” said Naftali Bennett, Minister for Industry, Trade and Labor.
Israeli Minister of Intelligence Yuval Steinitz noted that the agreement was bringing Iran closer to the construction of its own nuclear weapons under cover of the West. The Islamic Republic will just pass off plans to build nuclear weapons as ‘development of peaceful atom’ and then build them in two-three weeks.
Sima Shine, Head of Strategic Division at Israel's Ministry of Strategic Affairs, commented on the agreement. “Doubtlessly, the agreement is a big victory of Iran. Not only does it allow Iran to continue the nuclear program, weakening sanctions, but the agreement basically brings Iran out of international isolation has been in for decades since Ayatollah Khomeini. Thus, it is not a tactical, but a strategic achievement of Tehran. I have no doubts that the West could have made a better version of the agreement because Iran was in dire need for it,” she believes.
Yet, Shine sees positive moments in the fact that “Israel officially has no relation to the agreement, it does not oblige us and frees our hands. At the same time, some Israeli demands were taken into account by the West, including demands for more strict control over Iran’s fulfillment of conditions in the agreement.” She believes that Tel Aviv should “wait and pay careful attention to events. All historic experience shows that Iran has never fulfilled a single agreement and obligations. I am almost certain that it will violate them this time, either the points concerning ease of sanctions or points limiting the nuclear program. At this stage, Israel has the right to intervene and demand the international society to act.”
So far, it is hard to say whether Israeli politicians would follow Shine’s advice and monitor the situation idly, waiting for the Iranian regime to make a mistake. According to Lebanese sources, when French President Hollande visited Jerusalem, President of Saudi Arabian General Intelligence arrived there as well and had secret negotiations with Hollande and Benjamin Netanyahu.
It is possible that the talks were the first step towards formation of an Arab-Israeli anti-Iranian coalition Lieberman hinted about. Supposedly, besides Israel and Saudi Arabia, the coalition will include Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan and Egypt. It is possible that Turkey would forget about tensions with Israel and Egypt and would join the alliance for global geoeconomic interests.
If so, Lieberman was right, the world has entered a totally new political reality.
