The official visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Armenia and the informal summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which has ended in Yerevan, have definitively flagged up Russia's priorities in the South Caucasus. Moscow intends to make everything so that the war in Nagorno-Karabakh would not renew, and is ready to continue personal intermediary in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia if it is required and without taking into consideration the American and French partners in the Minsk group of OSCE.
Preventing war
If the project of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement passed under control of the USA which has failed Russia aspires to head the process of settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, playing the main role. Dmitry Medvedev's personal participation, his meetings with presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev and Serzhem Sargsjanom in a tripartite format should have lead to crucial promotion at negotiations. During the last two years some strong expectations of the real decision to change the status quo in region have appeared. The reaction of the states on any amendments only heats the atmosphere.
The next coil of opposition has formed the blocks in the area. During Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Yerevan the agreement about the prolongation of terms of locating the Russian military base for 49 years (since 1995) was signed, and also the essence of responsibility of the Russian military men has changed. Now they are responsible not only for the protection of the former border of the Soviet Union on perimeter of Armenia, but also for safety of the South Caucasian republic. In practice it means that in case of occurrence of military danger to Armenia, Russia will be obliged to interfere with the conflict on its side, protecting interests of Yerevan. The result which can be is clear.
The similar military-political union some days before Medvedev's arrival to Yerevan was preventively concluded by Azerbaijan and Turkey. Certainly, it is impossible to imagine a strong collision between Moscow and Ankara because of the conflict of allies on the Southern Caucasus. Nevertheless the fact of any prolongation of the contradiction forces to think of the further development of the situation in case of frank military confrontation. In Yerevan president Medvedev let know that Russia would not admit any escalation of intensity and the development of the conflict into a military phase.
In the message obviously turned to the Azerbaijan party, the head of Russia turned to the analogy to events of August, 2008 and military collision in Georgia. He has confirmed that only peace talks are able to lead to the resolution of the conflict. During the visit to Baku which is planned for next September-October the Russian leader can tell his colleague Ilham Aliyev how he sees the prospects. Actually, having stood up for Armenia, Moscow intends to support balance of the dialogue with both parties of the conflict.
ОDKB will vary
The summit of ODKB against the state visit of President of Russia to Yerevan has faded into the background a little. Its intrigue was kept only by the first coming of the leader of Kirghizia Rozy Otunbaevoj, and also the presence of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. Its relations with the Kremlin have, seemingly, the worst times, and Moscow does not hide that in the threshold of future presidential elections of Belarus Russia would prefer to see on this post another person. Lukashenko has not kept the word given to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However "Father" has denied the fact of the promise, than has drawn serious anger of the Kremlin.
Nevertheless Byelorus has agreed to accept presidency in CSTO which they did not take for the same reason last year, and Alexander Lukashenko will arrive Moscow at the end of the year. CSTO as the factor of the Russian presence on Southern Caucasus as a military block does work yet. The events in Kirghizia have shown the weakness of the structure and interrelations between partners. Therefore in Yerevan the decision to modify the Organization was taken. The leaders of the countries agreed about the expansion of the powers of ODKB. Offers about it will be accumulated till the end of the year when the official summit of the bloc takes place in Moscow in December.
It is supposed that some new mechanism of anti-recessionary reaction of ODKB to increase its efficiency will be formulated. President of Russia recognized that the present principle of decision-making by a consensus of all participants makes CSTO lose efficiency.
By the way, in many aspects the weakness of CSTO and a necessary consensus in decision-making has forced Armenia to go under direct protection of Russia and to sign the agreement on responsibility of Russians for safety. At the press conference President of Armenia underlined a difficult situation on Southern Caucasus as an example of possible necessity of operative intervention of the block. Attempts to expand a coalition was not the first, however it will hardly meet understanding from Presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan - Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov.
