Matthias Dornfeldt, political scientist, Berlin research center of the Caspian region
Swiss chairmanship of the OSCE will be held under the leitmotif of creating a "security community for the benefit of the people." Thus one of the main emphases will be put on "the establishment of dialogue and confidence in the South Caucasus." Heeding the recommendation of Burkhalter, Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Swiss Bundesrat has appointed the experienced diplomat Angelo Gnedlinger to the post of special envoy to the South Caucasus for the period of the Swiss Chairmanship of the OSCE. Mr Gnedlinger's tasks will include mainly supporting the process of rapprochement between Russia and Georgia on the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
In this area, Bern can use its many years of diplomatic experience in the South Caucasus. It is important to remember that, since 2009, Switzerland on the basis of the relevant mandate represents Georgia's diplomatic interests in Moscow and Moscow's interests in Tbilisi. Switzerland has also acted as a mediator in 2011 at the conclusion of the Russian-Georgian customs agreement that allowed Russia to eventually join the WTO. Bern, proven to be an honest arbitrator, can now contribute to the continuation of the Geneva talks on a settlement of the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts that have been ongoing since 2009. During the Swiss Chairmanship of the OSCE will be discussed mainly the measures to build confidence between the parties of the conflict - such as exchange projects in the arts, youth work, etc.
In the long-term conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, Switzerland can also offer its services. Since 2007, Switzerland has successfully mediated in the conflict between Armenia and Turkey. In 2009, Ankara and Yerevan agreed on the Zurich protocols on normalization of bilateral relations.Switzerland continues to support this process of rapprochement, even considering the fact that the parliaments of Armenia and Turkey did not ratify the Zurich protocols, and since 2011 the peace process has not moved forward.
In autumn 2013 the International Crisis Group warned of the danger of a sudden military escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, in 2013, the conflict claimed dozens of lives. In 2014, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can "explode" at any moment, which may require the active participation of the OSCE Chairman Didier Burkhalter as a crisis manager.
At the end of 2012 Switzerland offered a four-year cooperation strategy for the South Caucasus, the total financial volume of which amounted to 100 million Swiss francs. This trend in the framework of the OSCE activities perfectly fits into Switzerland's general foreign policy. There will surely be many common points between Switzerland's active collaborative programs and still-planned initiatives of the OSCE.
Switzerland also has a good starting position to draw Russia into the family of the OSCE: Bern traditionally maintains good relations with Moscow. In 2007, Switzerland concluded an agreement on strategic partnership with Russia. In 2011, Russia unreservedly supported the Swiss candidate for the chairmanship of the OSCE. Partners of the OSCE - Serbia and Ukraine - maintain excellent contacts with Moscow. These factors are positive preconditions, as a constructive dialogue with Russia is essential for progress in the OSCE.
Switzerland's chairmanship in 2014, followed by Serbia's in 2015, ensures that the crisis regions of south-eastern Europe and the South Caucasus will remain on the agenda of the OSCE for a long time. Ultimately, Serbia's Kosovo problem is similar to the Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
Foreign Minister Burkhalter recently said he did not want to stir up expectations about the Swiss Chairmanship."Tensions within the OSCE are real. We should not pretend that during the Swiss Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2014 all problems will be resolved," he explained. In fact, many factors can complicate a repetition of the success of the Swiss Chairmanship of the OSCE in 1996. There is a risk that such countries as the U.S., Russia, Georgia, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia can hinder the adoption of policy statements and decisions that are supported by 95% of the other members of the OSCE. This can happen at the meeting of the Ministerial Council in Switzerland at the end of 2014 or at the OSCE summit in Serbia in 2015. Such precedents have already been observed in Astana, and the risk of recurrence is hanging over the chairmanship of Switzerland and Serbia in 2014 and 2015 like a sword of Damocles. Swiss diplomacy should demonstrate maximum creativity to find a common language with the traditional "veto" states.
