Azerbaijan turns to Iran

Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza

The whole post-Soviet space follows the Ukrainian crisis. Governments of other post-Soviet republics are concerned about the merger of Crimea with Russia and clashes in the Southeast of Ukraine. They see a threat in changes of the Ukrainian borders. Even allied Kazakhstan stiffened punishment for urges to separatism. The leader of the LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky stirs up the situation: he speaks about Kazakhstan’s regions populated by the Russians, says that the Azerbaijanis are not a nation, and states that the former Soviet republics dream about a merger into the Russian Federation.

Azerbaijan, which is the most pragmatic, independent, self-sufficient republic in the South Caucasus, corrects its foreign policy as well. No, Baku and its political elite have no anti-Russian hysteria in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. In the Council of Europe the Azerbaijani delegation was one of few which didn’t vote to deprive Russia of the right to vote in the organization. Most of the Azerbaijani delegates abstained, and one deputy voted against the PACE anti-Russian resolution.

The leadership of the country doesn’t see a connection between the Crimean events and the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh occupation. Finally, the principle of restoration of the history justice implemented by Vladimir Putin in the merger of Crimea suits Azerbaijan as well, as it insists on historic belonging of separatist Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

However, in the context of the Ukrainian developments, Baku could see unreliability of the EU and the USA as political allies in the modern post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus, once again. The lesson was well studied by the example of Georgia in 2008, when it tried to conduct a military operation on returning South Ossetia under silent support of Western partners. Russia reacted immediately and severely. For the West it was a failed acid test. For Saakashvili’s government is was a final loss of its two separatist provinces. President Ilham Aliyev has no intention to organize political adventures, unlike his former Georgian colleague. And his country hasn’t suffered the foreign political disaster of Georgia.

Azerbaijan unlike neighboring Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova treated the EU program of the Eastern Partnership rather skeptically from the very beginning. And Moscow’s reaction wasn’t the main reason for this, even though it wasn’t the least. Baku didn’t see big practical advantages in the Eastern Partnership. The rich oil and gas country needs no financial transfers from Brussels. The association agreement with the EU doesn’t match interests of Azerbaijani producers. Finally, Baku needs no orders from Brussels how to build European democracy in the country which has a frozen conflict, a million of refugees, the unrest North Caucasus and unpredictable Iran in neighbors. Baku prefers to discuss its political stability and security with powers which have weigh in the region – Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

Today Azerbaijan decided to reset difficult relations with Iran where the moderate reformer Hassan Rouhani became the president. In March the Emergency Minister of Azerbaijan Kymaladdin Heydarov who is thought to be one of the most important officials in Azerbaijan visited Tehran. Probably Heydarov’s visit had to prepare further diplomatic breakthrough in the Iranian direction, as intensiveness of Azerbaijani-Iranian top contacts increased amazingly after the visit. President Aliyev officially visited Tehran in early April, where he talked to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani. The Supreme Spiritual Leader of Iran actually expressed his support to Azerbaijani position in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Right after the end of Ilham Aliyev’s visit the Defense Minister of Azerbaijan Zakir Gasanov headed to Iran. He promised Tehran that Azerbaijan would never be a platform for an attack at Iran. Soon, the Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan stated that Iranian President intended to visit Baku. It is planned that the memorandum on the Caspian status will be signed during the visit. Moreover, the Minister of Information and High Technologies of Azerbaijan plans to visit Iran in the near future. The Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan is very optimistic about the new stage of development of the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations.

Tel Aviv follows development of relations between Baku and Tehran attentively. Right after Aliyev’s visit to Tehran the Israeli delegation headed by the Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman arrived to Baku.

However, Israel has no reasons for worry about, as the new stage of Iranian-Azerbaijani cooperation won’t have anti-Israeli character, considering importance of the strategic partnership between Tel Aviv and Baku. Azerbaijani-Israeli relations are pragmatic and unique. They are based on mutually beneficial trade and political interests. Intensification of relations with Iran is an attempt to compensate reducing space for a diplomatic maneuver, as the role of Russia is growing in the South Caucasus, while the West is weakening.

However, there is another aspect of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. This is expansion of radical Islamism, Salafism in Azerbaijan, which is sponsored by certain centers in wealthy Arab monarchies – probably the process is supported by the USA which thinks that using fundamentalists for reaching their own interests is acceptable. In Azerbaijan foreign forces could try to influence the situation through religion, considering the Islamic peculiarities of the country. Iran and Russia are not interested in improvement of the Salafi movement in Azerbaijan, and here we can speak about cooperation between Moscow, Baku, and Tehran.