A system of guarantees that the Iranian nuclear program will be peaceful needs to be reached by November 24 in order to free the Islamic Republic from sanctions. Tehran is negotiating the system with the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia and China as mediators in the process. Progress at the negotiations has already been achieved, but differences over the extent of uranium enrichment and lifting of sanctions remain. Russian experts have evaluated the chances of reaching a solution.
Alexander Kuznetsov, deputy director of the Institute for Forecasts and Political Settlement, is confident that the administration of Barack Obama and government of Hassan Rouhani need to sign a final agreement: “Hassan Rouhani and his team have staked everything. Rouhani was campaigning under the slogan of resolving the Iranian nuclear problem. He has no other special achievements. If he fails the negotiating process he will lose face at best, it will be a political death at worst. Iranian society is tired of sanctions, so it was unsurprising that Rouhani was elected president.”
Concerning Obama, Kuznetsov thinks that the only real achievement in his 8 years in power is abominable mistakes and failures: “The Iranian nuclear problem is not a goal in itself for the U.S. Even if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, they would hardly be a threat to regional security and stability or American interests. Iran would not use nuclear weapons against Saudi Arabia or Israel because Tehran realizes what consequences such a step would bring. Use of nuclear weapons against a state of the Persian Gulf would become an ecological catastrophe that would affect Iran itself.”
Kusnetsov is certain that the goal of the U.S. is to deprive Iran of the status of a regional superpower: “Today Iran is the only country of the Middle East region under no foreign control. In other words, it has a fully-independent foreign policy. Even states with such great political and financial potential as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which is trying to pursue its foreign political initiatives, are still doing it looking back at the U.S. one way or another and are not fully free in their actions. It is important for the U.S. to minimize the influence of Iran in the Middle East, in the Arab East, to fully solve the problem with Assad in Syria and stop Iran’s support for the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. In other words, to deprive Iran of the status of an independent player.”
Rajab Safarov, the director general of the Center for Studies of Modern Iran, assumes that the lifting of sanctions could be a blow to Russia: “The Iranian market will be fully monopolized by Western companies, and Russian companies cannot compete with Western ones in terms of technologies, in terms of investment. Six months later, Iran will reach a state when investments, technologies and contracts, long-term and real, will influence the political line of Iran, the political situation in Iran itself. It is fraught with catastrophic consequences for the interests of Russia in Central Asia and the region as a whole. Since Iran could turn into an outpost for the U.S. and Western countries, and a country with a transit line for training and maintaining a whole set of destructive factors that will operate in Russia, on the territory of CIS states, undermine the stability of Russia, the economic element.”
Safarov supposes that Iran will integrate into the system of Western values if it signs the agreement. Iran would then become a serious competitor to Russia on the energy market in the near future: “Huge investments will flow through Iran into the economies of the CIS, post-Soviet space. It will strengthen the presence and political influence of Iran in Central Asia. It would be absolutely impossible to put any longstops in the way of economic expansion with the subsequent conversion of this level to a political element in these countries.”
Vladimir Sazhin, a senior scientist of the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, an expert in Iranian issues, assumes that the document planned for signing on November 24 will have two basic points: “The first is the demand that Iran fulfil and follow the principles of the additional protocol of the IAEA agreement that makes the Iranian nuclear program fully open to the IAEA. In such a variant, it is impossible to move away, impossible to do anything that would not be known to the IAEA. The second moment is a carefully calculated algorithm of actions, how to lift the sanctions. The issue is quite complicated. It is easier to impose them than lift them. There are very many sanctions. How will they be lifted? Either all at a time, as the Iranians insist, but I do not think that the Western Europeans or Russia would agree to that because our foreign minister had previously proposed step-by-step principles, in other words, to lift the sanctions gradually. There needs to be a mechanism developed and approved to lift the sanctions. If they reach an agreement on that point, I think that a good document will be signed on November 24.”
The U.S. wants to deprive it of the status of regional superpowerA system of guarantees that the Iranian nuclear program will be peaceful needs to be reached by November 24 in order to free the Islamic Republic from sanctions. Tehran is negotiating the system with the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Russia and China as mediators in the process. Progress at the negotiations has already been achieved, but differences over the extent of uranium enrichment and lifting of sanctions remain. Russian experts have evaluated the chances of reaching a solution.Alexander Kuznetsov, deputy director of the Institute for Forecasts and Political Settlement, is confident that the administration of Barack Obama and government of Hassan Rouhani need to sign a final agreement: “Hassan Rouhani and his team have staked everything. Rouhani was campaigning under the slogan of resolving the Iranian nuclear problem. He has no other special achievements. If he fails the negotiating process he will lose face at best, it will be a political death at worst. Iranian society is tired of sanctions, so it was unsurprising that Rouhani was elected president.”Concerning Obama, Kuznetsov thinks that the only real achievement in his 8 years in power is abominable mistakes and failures: “The Iranian nuclear problem is not a goal in itself for the U.S. Even if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, they would hardly be a threat to regional security and stability or American interests. Iran would not use nuclear weapons against Saudi Arabia or Israel because Tehran realizes what consequences such a step would bring. Use of nuclear weapons against a state of the Persian Gulf would become an ecological catastrophe that would affect Iran itself.”Kusnetsov is certain that the goal of the U.S. is to deprive Iran of the status of a regional superpower: “Today Iran is the only country of the Middle East region under no foreign control. In other words, it has a fully-independent foreign policy. Even states with such great political and financial potential as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which is trying to pursue its foreign political initiatives, are still doing it looking back at the U.S. one way or another and are not fully free in their actions. It is important for the U.S. to minimize the influence of Iran in the Middle East, in the Arab East, to fully solve the problem with Assad in Syria and stop Iran’s support for the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. In other words, to deprive Iran of the status of an independent player.”Rajab Safarov, the director general of the Center for Studies of Modern Iran, assumes that the lifting of sanctions could be a blow to Russia: “The Iranian market will be fully monopolized by Western companies, and Russian companies cannot compete with Western ones in terms of technologies, in terms of investment. Six months later, Iran will reach a state when investments, technologies and contracts, long-term and real, will influence the political line of Iran, the political situation in Iran itself. It is fraught with catastrophic consequences for the interests of Russia in Central Asia and the region as a whole. Since Iran could turn into an outpost for the U.S. and Western countries, and a country with a transit line for training and maintaining a whole set of destructive factors that will operate in Russia, on the territory of CIS states, undermine the stability of Russia, the economic element.”Safarov supposes that Iran will integrate into the system of Western values if it signs the agreement. Iran would then become a serious competitor to Russia on the energy market in the near future: “Huge investments will flow through Iran into the economies of the CIS, post-Soviet space. It will strengthen the presence and political influence of Iran in Central Asia. It would be absolutely impossible to put any longstops in the way of economic expansion with the subsequent conversion of this level to a political element in these countries.”Vladimir Sazhin, a senior scientist of the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, an expert in Iranian issues, assumes that the document planned for signing on November 24 will have two basic points: “The first is the demand that Iran fulfil and follow the principles of the additional protocol of the IAEA agreement that makes the Iranian nuclear program fully open to the IAEA. In such a variant, it is impossible to move away, impossible to do anything that would not be known to the IAEA. The second moment is a carefully calculated algorithm of actions, how to lift the sanctions. The issue is quite complicated. It is easier to impose them than lift them. There are very many sanctions. How will they be lifted? Either all at a time, as the Iranians insist, but I do not think that the Western Europeans or Russia would agree to that because our foreign minister had previously proposed step-by-step principles, in other words, to lift the sanctions gradually. There needs to be a mechanism developed and approved to lift the sanctions. If they reach an agreement on that point, I think that a good document will be signed on November
