A new Parliament (Melli Mejlis) is to be elected in Azerbaijan on the
7th of November 2010. At the moment 64 seats of the 125 in the
Parliament belong to the ruling party, while only 12 belong to the
opposition, which couldn't unite. The political situation in
Azerbaijan doesn't differ much from that of other ex-Soviet republics
where former communist leaders came to power. The difference is that
during the previous elections the opposition, which held office in the
early 1990s, couldn't resist the policies of Heydar and Ilham Aliyev.
Expectations of an Orange Revolution were dashed when several
Ministers were arrested before the Parliamentary elections in 2005.
Domestic policy affects the republic's external political orientation.
In the new countries created after the demise of the USSR, the
orientating points of external policy changed harshly. One of the main
changes is the country's attitude towards Russia – against it or for
it. Unlike Georgia, where anti-Russian views motivated the change of
power in 2003, Azerbaijan is more pragmatic in its ways of achieving
the goals of its own geo-economic projects. Azerbaijan's problem is
still the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Despite Russia's efforts, the
settlement process has entered a period of stagnation. On the other
hand, Aliyev was shocked, when Turkey started normalising relations
with Armenia the previous year. In such circumstances Azerbaijan is
awaiting parliamentary elections, in which opposition parties,
composed of former people in power, are against ruling party. The
opposition leaders, Ali Keremli and Isa Gambar, have been struggling
for power for almost 17 years, that is, we see no changes either in
government or in opposition – the same people struggle for power.
There is a belief that Western political quarters play a certain role
in the opposition's activities. In the past few months articles,
described as “biased” by the authorities, have appeared in the Western
press, while the Azerbaijani opposition mass media goes gives blanket
coverage to Keremli's promise to soften the official position
concerning the Armenian-Turkish border and the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, in case he comes to power. Some call it Keremli's concession
to potential patrons. In this case, we can assume that Ilham Aliyev's
fundamental position of non-acceptance of normalisation of
Armenian-Turkish relations has become a red line for the West
concerning the Azerbaijani President. Therefore, Ali Keremli is ready
to do everything to come to power. In such circumstances, a closed
Armenian-Turkish border and an unsettled Karabakh conflict are to his
advantage. And Aliyev's uncompromising stand concerning the two main
political issues could be replaced by a commitment to peacekeeping
principles of the possible new government and a Kosovo scenario for
Nagorno-Karabakh.
