The UN General Assembly Summit of heads of states and Foreign Ministers has seen a considerable share of discussion on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers discussed the issue in the presence of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. The same question will probably be discussed at the forthcoming OSCE summit in Astana, but it is not on top of its agenda.
It is obvious now that the mediators prefer to leave the issue in a suspended state while having discussions at the highest level once in a month. So it is doesn't seem possible that any considerable progress in the settlement of the conflict will be reached any time soon. Politicians may sign different documents and declarations, promote meetings between the parties on different levels, but right now it is much more important to get the people to respect each other, to make friendly relations possible between those who had to flee from Karabakh and those who now live there.
We have to admit that the reason for the slow progress in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement lies not only in the difficulties between Armenia and Azerbaijan. There is also some fraction between the mediators. The process of Armenian-Turkish conflict settlement may serve as a good example: there is now a warming in the relations of the two countries, but certain agreements have been reached. Baku demands that all territories boarding Nagorno-Karabakh be freed from Armenia military presence at once and then comes the turn of some districts of Karabakh itself without final decision on its official status. Azerbaijan wants to exercise some pressure on Yerevan's officials to force the issue, but right now it doesn't seem possible.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan is not willing to sign the non-use of force agreement. An OSCE valuation commission is expected to investigate the situation on site and Azerbaijani officials hope that they will confirm the fact of Armenia's abuse of inter-national law. However, the efficiency of these activities is dubious, as they may trigger prolonged proceedings in international courts of justice. An evaluation field commission visited Abkhazia, but its attempts to settle the conflict didn't have any positive result.
In the end, South Caucasian governments think that only Russian participation can resolve the conflict, Moscow however prefers to leave the issue for Baku and Yerevan. Russian politics is for the most part subjective as deals personally with members of Azerbaijan's and Armenia's political elite. Putin and Medvedev manage to support friendly relations with both Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan for now. Russia, the main mediator of the region, has to maneuver and imply the policy of diversity risks, balancing between Baku and Yerevan and Nagorno-Karabakh itself does not fit into this delicate balance. Now, Russia is trying to find a new balance that would assure Azerbaijan's and Armenia's support. The results of this policy will emerge in 5 or 6 years.
Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively for VK.
