Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
After the recent voting in PACE, Russia saw a threat of real international isolation. It became clear that the Kremlin will have to use every effort to consolidate its current and potential allies, primarily allies in the post-Soviet space. Experts consider the transit visit by Sergei Lavrov to Turkmenistan in this context.
Lavrov arrived in Ashkhabad from Beijing, where he met his colleagues from China and India. In Russia they stress that cooperation with the two major players of the Asian-Pacific Region is strategic, as they reject participation in the anti-Russian policy of the EU and the USA. Shokhrat Kadyrov, a senior scientist of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, PhD, told Vestnik Kavkaza that since Tsarist times Russia has had a right to intensify its policy in the East when it had troubles with Europe. “The working visit to Turkmenistan by Lavrov is its confirmation and the continuation of meetings in Beijing. The meeting with powerful players of the Asian continent confirmed allied relations and the specific role of Russia, which is a guarantor of security in Asia. The Minister arrived in Ashkhabad with the same goal of searching for allies and being a new guarantor of security,” Shokhrat Kadyrov said.
According to the expert, when the USA withdrew from Afghanistan, Russia became the main guarantor of the security of neutral Turkmenistan. Moreover, it is not only about the security of Turkmen gas-producing and gas-transporting infrastructures, but also about facilities which have been recently constructed there by China. The current prosperity of Turkmenistan, which is damaged by the structural crisis in Russia, significantly depends on the normal working of the Chinese infrastructures.
Experts don’t exclude that during the talks between Sergei Lavrov and the Turkmen authorities the question of Turkmen gas exports to Europe was touched on. Russia's Gazprom purchases about 10 billion cubic meters of gas every year. Ashkhabad is interested in an increase of gas exports to Russia. However, in the context of falling purchases of Russian gas in Europe, such a prospect is unreal. Gazprom would like to stop importing Turkmen gas. However, the agreement between Russia and Turkmenistan was signed till 2028. According to the contract, it cannot be reconsidered.
Ashkhabad is considering an alternative option to participation in TANAP – the project of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Last week a regular meeting of the foreign ministers of Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey took place in Ashkhabad. The ministers signed the Ashkhabad Declaration. It seems Ankara is striving to do something that Moscow couldn’t or didn’t want to do – to make peace between Baku and Ashkhabad in their dispute over oil fields in the Caspian Sea. To involve Turkmenistan in the project it is necessary to construct a gas pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian Sea. However, Iran and Russia stand against it; they refer to the unsettled status of the sea and environmental threats. Despite all the technical issues, there is an interest in the project at the political level. Probably Moscow could make some concessions in exchange for political loyalty.
At the same time, Azerbaijan has already demonstrated its support for the Kremlin. At the last PACE session, Baku spoke against the resolution on depriving Russia of voting rights. Sergei Naryshkin, the Speaker of the State Duma, said “our friends and colleagues from the parliamentary delegation of Azerbaijan voted, according to their creeds, in favor of justice, common sense, and democracy. It is a model.” Experts note that the Speaker of the State Duma precisely highlighted key points, confirming the point of view that Moscow respects the position of official Baku, which doesn’t accept the policy of applying pressure and firmly follows international law.
Speaking about security issues in the talks in Ashkhabad, Moscow can promise aid to the Turkmen authorities in case of the worsening situation on the Afghan border. “Turkmenistan, whose territory is similar to the Caucasus is the most vulnerable part in the Eurasian security system. For instance, Tajikistan is protected from Afghanistan by high mountains and a well-guarded border. There are no such natural obstacles on the 750-km Turkmen border; moreover, there is no joint border guard service with Russia. A deep border ditch (4x5 m) is unlikely to protect the Turkmens from an invasion of Talibs and radicals of Islamic State. Of course, Ashkhabad won’t reject its neutrality because of the threat of a possible war. Lavrov’s task is to persuade the Turkmen authorities that asking for Russia’s help will encourage the preservation of its neutrality. Moreover, Moscow helped Turkmenistan to gain the status,” Shokhrat Kadyrov said.
