Kazakhstan’s society is sure that the current president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev will gain about 97% of votes in the upcoming early presidential elections. Gulshat Urazaliyeva, Professor of RSUH, stated at a round table discussion at the History Department of MSU on April 8th that such information was spread on the social networks of the country. She analyzed an emotional context on the social networks ahead of the presidential elections and concluded that the information field of Kazakhstan has experienced serious pressure from Russian media. Thus, ‘people’s emotions and views’ on the elections amount to one idea: “Let it be Nazarbayev! It doesn’t matter that he is too long in power, as long as there is no war!” Lyudmila Adilova, Professor of RSUH, a Russian political scientist, is sure that any elections are a concentration of negative emotions and a trigger for a change of political elites.
Russian and Kazakh experts who participated in the round table presented a report ‘Evolution of the Electoral System of Kazakhstan.’ They summed up that Nazarbayev’s goal was not ‘achieving a high result,’ but holding the elections according to the best democratic standards, i.e. without administrative resources and excessive efforts by officials on the spot. “It will increase the population’s level of trust in the current authorities and will encourage further holding of presidential elections, following universal democratic procedures,” Julia Yakusheva, the executive director of the political scientific center ‘North-South’ said.
One of the reasons for holding the early elections in Kazakhstan is the difficult period. According to forecasts by various international institutions, problems will continue growing for some time. Experts believe the elections will encourage growth in predictability for investors, decrease of risks and stabilization of Kazakhstan’s economy. Considering such a development of the situation, it is necessary for the President to gain a new credit of trust. Along with growing problems, social demands from the authorities will be toughened. But a victory in the elections will enable the economic bloc of Nazarbayev’s government to work in a relatively calm atmosphere without strong social pressure, providing necessary anti-crisis measures which won’t be popular among citizens, as the world experience confirms.
Andrei Chebotarev, the director of the Center of Topical Studies ‘Alternative’, says that the ruling elite is much more interested in holding the elections than Nazarbayev. “They understand the influence of internal and external factors,” Chebotarev notes. According to the expert, internal factors include governmental activity on signing memorandums ‘On Providing Stabilization of Production Processes’ between business, local authorities and trade unions. It is carried out to provide payment of salaries to people, to prevent their dismissal, at least before the presidential elections. Another important factor which influenced the decision on holding the early elections was that there was no real organized opposition in Kazakhstan. This is confirmed by the fact that the opposition isn’t participating in the elections.
"And the third factor is the future transfer of authority. Though this topic is not discussed in the country, but a number of statements made by Nazarbayev indicate what he thinks about the transfer of authority," Chebotarev said. He recalled that in 2013 in the documentary film "Nazarbayev's Life" the president made it clear what he thinks about this issue and intends to transfer authority peacefully, in a civilized manner. In addition, in his election program Nazarbayev spoke about the phased conduction of constitutional reform focused on redistribution of presidential authority to parliament and the government in the post-election period. "In my opinion, the fact is that the process of the future transfer of authority is at least planned, if not started already. Carrying out such a reform suggests that Kazakhstan will built a model of some collective successor of supreme authority. It will not be a transfer of power from one individual to another individual from a number of closest associates. The authority will be redistributed between various key institutions of the state in order for them to balance each other in the future, in order to avoid a skewing of the center of authority," Chebotarev said. He emphasized that, so far, the time limits are not defined, but the reform can be carried out in 2-3 years. Most of the gathered experts noted that "Acorda" plays ahead and intends to strengthen the position of the head of state, and, consequently, of the entire ruling elite."A transfer of the economic course of the country is equally important," the head of the sector of economic development of post-Soviet countries of the Center of Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics Elena Kuzmina thinks. According to her, the structure of Kazakhstan's export and import in 2014 shows that, despite the program of industrial development, the country still cannot "jump" from the raw materials needle. These programs do not work to the extent that is necessary for accelerated development. Since the socio-economic situation of the population is directly related to the level of salaries and the number of jobs, positive results can only be achieved with the development of industry," Elena Kuzmina says. "An update of the mandate of President Nursultan Nazarbayev will strengthen the legitimacy of the actual completion of this program," the expert said.Director of the Analytical Center of MGIMO Andrey Kazantsev addressed the likely response of the West to the early presidential elections in Kazakhstan. He believes that the overall evaluation will be positive and the usual rhetoric about democratic values and human rights with regard to Astana will not be voiced at all, or will be in a mild form. Kazantsev explains such sn attitude of the West by the fact that it has serious interests present in Kazakhstan. Firstly - business. Secondly, geopolitical interests connected with the Middle East, the radical movement Islamic State and the stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. The West needs a stable Kazakhstan, and therefore, according to Andrey Kazantsev, Nazarbayev will be supported.Astana can count on the support of Moscow and Beijing to an even greater degree. "Nazarbayev enjoys a great reputation in the Russian Federation as the initiator of Eurasian integration, and as an effective head of state, and as an authoritative politician in the former Soviet Union and in the world as a whole," Yulia Yakusheva noted. China, in this case, just like the West tends to deal with an already familiar leader, whose policy is clear, rational and is far from being unpredictable.
"And the third factor is the future transfer of authority. Though this topic is not discussed in the country, but a number of statements made by Nazarbayev indicate what he thinks about the transfer of authority," Chebotarev said. He recalled that in 2013 in the documentary film "Nazarbayev's Life" the president made it clear what he thinks about this issue and intends to transfer authority peacefully, in a civilized manner. In addition, in his election program Nazarbayev spoke about the phased conduction of constitutional reform focused on redistribution of presidential authority to parliament and the government in the post-election period. "In my opinion, the fact is that the process of the future transfer of authority is at least planned, if not started already. Carrying out such a reform suggests that Kazakhstan will built a model of some collective successor of supreme authority. It will not be a transfer of power from one individual to another individual from a number of closest associates. The authority will be redistributed between various key institutions of the state in order for them to balance each other in the future, in order to avoid a skewing of the center of authority," Chebotarev said. He emphasized that, so far, the time limits are not defined, but the reform can be carried out in 2-3 years. Most of the gathered experts noted that "Acorda" plays ahead and intends to strengthen the position of the head of state, and, consequently, of the entire ruling elite.
"A transfer of the economic course of the country is equally important," the head of the sector of economic development of post-Soviet countries of the Center of Post-Soviet Studies of the Institute of Economics Elena Kuzmina thinks. According to her, the structure of Kazakhstan's export and import in 2014 shows that, despite the program of industrial development, the country still cannot "jump" from the raw materials needle. These programs do not work to the extent that is necessary for accelerated development. Since the socio-economic situation of the population is directly related to the level of salaries and the number of jobs, positive results can only be achieved with the development of industry," Elena Kuzmina says. "An update of the mandate of President Nursultan Nazarbayev will strengthen the legitimacy of the actual completion of this program," the expert said.
Director of the Analytical Center of MGIMO Andrey Kazantsev addressed the likely response of the West to the early presidential elections in Kazakhstan. He believes that the overall evaluation will be positive and the usual rhetoric about democratic values and human rights with regard to Astana will not be voiced at all, or will be in a mild form. Kazantsev explains such sn attitude of the West by the fact that it has serious interests present in Kazakhstan. Firstly - business. Secondly, geopolitical interests connected with the Middle East, the radical movement Islamic State and the stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. The West needs a stable Kazakhstan, and therefore, according to Andrey Kazantsev, Nazarbayev will be supported.
Astana can count on the support of Moscow and Beijing to an even greater degree. "Nazarbayev enjoys a great reputation in the Russian Federation as the initiator of Eurasian integration, and as an effective head of state, and as an authoritative politician in the former Soviet Union and in the world as a whole," Yulia Yakusheva noted. China, in this case, just like the West tends to deal with an already familiar leader, whose policy is clear, rational and is far from being unpredictable.
