VC chief editor answering readers’ questions

Alexei Vlasov on the interpretation of Eurasianism in Turkey and Azerbaijan and the plausibility of the "color revolutions" in the South Caucasus.

Andrei (Moscow): A presentation text for a book written by the Kazakh scientist Seliverstov on Eurasianism in Turkey has been published on the VC site. To what extent is this issue relevant in terms of establishing contacts between Russia and Turkey?

Alexei Vlasov: This question cannot be answered definitively. Ideology is by and large not a topic of any particular interest to the post-Soviet elites. Kazakhstan is perhaps an exception to the rule, due to the fact that Nursultan Nazarbayev is considered one of the main ideologists of applied Eurasianism. In Turkey and Azerbaijan, Eurasianism is interpreted as an ideology permitting  expanded spheres of contact with Moscow. This trend is used situationally, e.g. when the pro-western tendency weakens and some new debating platforms must be created, aimed at other centers of power.

The Eurasianism issue has not become a broad public issue in Turkey yet. It is difficult to forecast if it will happen soon. Moreover, there is a desire to integrate the interpretation of the Eurasian project and Turkic unity. The problem of its necessity for Russia, taking into consideration the strong Turkic constituents in a whole number of Russian regions, is no less difficult.
To sum it up, Eurasianism possesses substantial development potential both in Turkey and Azerbaijan, but it will be a difficult task to realize this potential. The integration ideology should be conscious, but not too self-conscious. A situational approach in this area cannot yield any substantial result.

Gulnara Askhanova (Astana): Could new "color" revolutions spread in the South Caucasus region?

Alexei Vlasov: From my point of view, the probability of such developments is likely to be very low for Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Kyrgyz syndrome is firstly characterized by irresponsible social policy, clannishness and corruption. And on a global scale.
There is the potential for conflict between the government and the opposition, but this crisis resource is more closely connected with political factors than with social ones. That is, if Saakashvili’s rule in Georgia is overthrown, it will be most likely to happen due to an intra-elite plot, not a people's revolution. These aspects should be assessed realistically.
As for Azerbaijan, Aliyev’s social policy is adequate enough for the national agenda. The only scourge is inflation. However, I cannot say that there are any alarming indicators.


VC cheif editor answering readers’ questions
Alexei Vlasov on the interpretation of Eurasianism in Turkey and Azerbaijan and the plausibility of the "color revolutions" in the South Caucasus.

Andrei (Moscow): A presentation text for a book written by the Kazakh scientist Seliverstov on Eurasianism in Turkey has been published on the VC site. To what extent is this issue relevant in terms of establishing contacts between Russia and Turkey?

Alexei Vlasov: This question cannot be answered definitively. Ideology is by and large not a topic of any particular interest to the post-Soviet elites. Kazakhstan is perhaps an exception to the rule, due to the fact that Nursultan Nazarbayev is considered one of the main ideologists of applied Eurasianism. In Turkey and Azerbaijan, Eurasianism is interpreted as an ideology permitting  expanded spheres of contact with Moscow. This trend is used situationally, e.g. when the pro-western tendency weakens and some new debating platforms must be created, aimed at other centers of power.

The Eurasianism issue has not become a broad public issue in Turkey yet. It is difficult to forecast if it will happen soon. Moreover, there is a desire to integrate the interpretation of the Eurasian project and Turkic unity. The problem of its necessity for Russia, taking into consideration the strong Turkic constituents in a whole number of Russian regions, is no less difficult.
To sum it up, Eurasianism possesses substantial development potential both in Turkey and Azerbaijan, but it will be a difficult task to realize this potential. The integration ideology should be conscious, but not too self-conscious. A situational approach in this area cannot yield any substantial result.

Gulnara Askhanova (Astana): Could new "color" revolutions spread in the South Caucasus region?

Alexei Vlasov: From my point of view, the probability of such developments is likely to be very low for Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Kyrgyz syndrome is firstly characterized by irresponsible social policy, clannishness and corruption. And on a global scale.
There is the potential for conflict between the government and the opposition, but this crisis resource is more closely connected with political factors than with social ones. That is, if Saakashvili’s rule in Georgia is overthrown, it will be most likely to happen due to an intra-elite plot, not a people's revolution. These aspects should be assessed realistically.
As for Azerbaijan, Aliyev’s social policy is adequate enough for the national agenda. The only scourge is inflation. However, I cannot say that there are any alarming indicators.
The social situation in Armenia is more complicated, but there are no serious forces able to transform these problems into a serious protest. Levon Ter-Petrossian is unlikely to be capable of doing it. So, there is no reason for supposing that the Kyrgyz scenario will recur in the South Caucasus.