Arman Gevorkyan: "Changes to constitution designed for president to remain in power"

The referendum on constitutional reforms, providing for the country's transition to a parliamentary system of government, will be held on December 6. Political scientist Arman Gevorgyan answered Vestnik Kavkaza's questions about the political and economic situation in Armenia, as well as the most important directions of foreign policy.

- Today constitutional changes have become the central issue for Armenia. Are they appropriate?

- There has been no public or political inquiry to amend the Constitution. The current president wants to stay in power, using the position of "Secretary General" of the ruling party. Draft amendments are actually suited for this task. A former president of neighboring Georgia, Saakashvili, had the same desire. There were constitutional changes in Georgia in 2010, providing for the country's transition from a presidential-parliamentary system of government to a parliamentary system. Saakashvili hoped that the ruling United National Movement party could win the parliamentary elections in 2012, which, however, did not happen.

It employs the following logic – to fit the Constitution to their plans to organize the victory of the ruling party in the elections, and then to be either the Speaker of Parliament, or a deputy who, in occupying the position of "Secretary General", will provide guidance to the prime minister and president. This plan has failed in Georgia, and today Saakashvili is the governor of the Odessa region. Serzh Sargsyan apparently believes that he will not suffer Saakashvili's failure.

A hasty transition to a parliamentary form of government in countries which have not formed a multi-party system yet is fraught with a risk of destabilization of the situation. The countries where these changes were made [Moldova, Ukraine, Libya, Iraq] have problems with governance. Nobody can guarantee that such problems will not occur in Georgia. We need a stable multi-party system for the transition to a parliamentary form of government. There was no such system in most post-Soviet states except the Baltic countries.

- How do you assess the chances of the sides before the referendum on December 6?

- The authorities are actively preparing on several fronts. First, they are going to use their big advantage in the electoral commissions. Secondly, it will try to use the fact that 500-700 thousand voters are absent in the country. This is a "reserve" of the authorities for all national elections, which involves multiple voting. Thirdly, even though the country has no obligation to invite international observers for the referendum, the authorities could invite them at such a crucial moment. But nothing was done – the international organizations will send only technical missions.

The next level of preparation is the election campaign, which is being waged through almost every media. The authorities assumed that they will "throw dust in people's eyes" as usual. However, the difficult social situation caused distrust of the authorities, and a low rating for the ruling administration. As a result, citizens do not perceive the campaign in favor of constitutional changes positively.

The opposition has chosen a simple model during the election campaign – instead of an explanation of all the problematic issues of a de facto new constitution to citizens, they put forward a scheme whereby the constitution will be changed for Serzh Sargsyan to remain in power. This simple scheme has led to the rapid formation of a negative public opinion. In addition, the opposition was able to efficiently use its limited financial resources. A lot of high-quality promotional videos were created and the Internet was used quite effectively. However, it is not an easy task when faced with opposition to ensure the active participation of citizens in the vote and to monitor the voting and counting.

- Why were there no opinion polls on the eve of the referendum?

- For the first time since the late 1990s there were no polls. The opposition does not have the necessary resources to organize even one credible poll.The authorities have initiated several surveys, but realized that the real situation is bad for them and no one would believe these painted figures. Given this alarming situation, they did not publish the results of the survey.

- What is the reason that Armenia's economy is not growing and GDP has still not reached the level of 2008?

- The model of 'a transfer economy', formed in the early 2000s, which involves Armenian migrants sending remittances from Russia to Armenia amounting to $2 billion, has faced serious challenges. It was expected that money transfers will be transformed into investments, which did not happen, since those transfers began to settle in the pockets of the importers.

The model has began to create serious disruptions due to problems in the Russian economy. It was necessary to rebuild the Armenian economy and orient it towards exports. There was more than enough time for it. Both Russia and the IMF allocated funds, but the economy wasn't restructured. Because the circle of people who are in power is interested in an import-oriented economy.

Despite the existing problems, this year there was a number of indicators by which it will be possible to ensure GDP growth of about 1%. We are talking about agriculture, where a growth of more than 12% was recorded.

However, that is not enough for higher growth, because agriculture does not take such a large share in the total economy of Armenia.

- How effective is the foreign policy of Yerevan against this background?

- The way the further integration processes in the Eurasian Economic Union will go plays an important role for Armenia. The meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is scheduled to take place before the end of the year, is also of great importance. Armenia supports Russia's actions in Syria and Yerevan is very interested in the fact that the operation of Russia's air forces as well as the actions of its allies in the country will be successful. The process of lifting the sanctions against Iran, which will open up new opportunities, is also important. The planned talks with the European Union on the signing of a new document in the framework of the Eastern Partnership will also open a new window of opportunities for Armenia. But the effectiveness of its foreign policy and security sector could be higher if there were not such a tangle of internal problems.