Escalation of the confrontation between the leading countries of the Middle East – Saudi Arabia and Iran – at the beginning of the year could destabilize the whole Islamic world. It is also a new challenge for the world powers. Experts say that Saudi Arabia, which is losing importance, is trying to prevent the strengthening of its main rival – Iran. Vladimir Sazhin, Senior Researcher of the Center for the Study of the Middle East at the Institute of Oriental Studies, calls the situation that has developed between Iran and Saudi Arabia “an expected surprise”. The intensity of the relations between the two countries has been developing for the last few years. And of course, if it had not been for the execution of the Sheikh, it would have been something else.
“Iran and Saudi Arabia have been for a long time in a condition of a proxy war – that is, they have been supporting forces fighting against each other. But at the same time, diplomatic, trade, economic and other relations were maintained between Tehran and Riyadh till now. Why exactly was the sentence carried out now?” Sazhin asks.
The expert was engaged in the Iranian nuclear problem for a long time, and he thinks that it is connected directly: “Saudi Arabia along with Israel opposed any agreement between Iran and the international community for many years. And now the successful conclusion of the nuclear agreement is the beginning of the lifting of financial and economic sanctions against Iran in the coming weeks. Iran already exports oil and gets paid for it. It opens very broad prospects for the country's way out from political and economic isolation, and therefore Iran is now becoming a lure for businesses of a completely different scale around the world. This is accepted by Riyadh more cautiously. Who wants to have an opponent growing in financial and economic terms?”
Meanwhile, according to Sazhin, Riyadh worries about the Iranian activity among the Shiite communities in the Arab world, especially in the Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia itself: “15% of the Saudi Arabian population is Shia, those who live in the Eastern province, which produces oil. And Iran's influence has always been great there. Special services, the IRGC were active there and still are. And of course, the Saudis fear the growing power of Iran will allow Tehran to interfere more actively and effectively in the internal processes taking place in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. The cold war between Iran and the Saudi kingdom will continue, but will not lead to a direct confrontation. The difference in the military capabilities is too great. Even if Saudi Arabia receives the help from the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the advantage of Iran cannot be contested.”
