According to the Russian Minister of Economic Development, Alexei Ulyukayev, the real income of the population of Russia will start to grow in the first quarter of 2016, when such a driver of economic growth as consumer demand will appear again in the country. Most experts do not link the difficult situation in the Russian economy, either in the price of oil or the Western economic sanctions against Russia, which were introduced on August 1st 2014, then expanded and then eased ... The restricted access to European credit of the five largest Russian banks, the arms embargo and the ban on the supply to Russia of dual-use technology, as well as the ban on the provision of new Russian technology and the sale of high-tech equipment for the oil sector were included In a set of the sectoral sanctions.
Meanwhile, as Vladimir Putin said, summing up the economic year at his large press conference, "the statistics show that the crisis of the Russian economy as a whole has passed. The peak of the crisis. From the second quarter of this year there is a limit of stabilization of business activity. Based on what are we making such a conclusion? In September and October, respectively, GDP grew by 0.1% compared to the previous month. Starting from May the volume of industrial output ceased to decline. In September and October small, but still growth of industrial production – 0.2 or 0.1% – was recorded. By the way, growth of the industrial production in the Far East is 3.1%. Agriculture demonstrates positive dynamics, growth there is at least 3%. And this suggests that we are supporting agriculture correctly and in a timely manner. The grain harvest for the second consecutive year is higher than 100 million tons, at 103.4.
According to Putin, the situation is stable in the labor market – the unemployment rate is around 5.6%. The total turnover has fallen, but the balance is positive, and it is preserved, and at a sufficiently fixed level. 126 billion, $3 billion. The international reserves have amounted to 364.4 billion. They have declined slightly, but still it is a very respectable amount.
Russia's foreign debt has decreased 13% compared to 2014, the outflow of capital has decreased, and in the third quarter of the year net inflows were recorded.
"With regard to the reduction of the debt burden, it is a very important thing and an important positive indicator. This is a reverse side associated with the so-called sanctions. Of course, it would be nice if we had access to foreign markets and refinancing all of this money remained in the Russian economy, could support development, but, on the other hand, too many credits are also a bad sign," Putin said.
Despite all the restrictions, Russia has completely fulfilled all its commitments to its partners, including the international lending institutions. "We pay everything on time and in full. And the total cumulative debt is not government debt, and the total cumulative debt, bearing in mind the debt of our financial institutions and enterprises of the real sector of the economy that has declined, and is basically a positive thing," the president believes.
According to him, investors who understand the realities of the Russian economy are beginning to show an interest in working here. Despite the difficult situation, the energy sector continues to evolve – oil, coal, electric power production has increased. At the end of the year more than 4.6 gigawatts of new generating capacities will be put into operation.
Infrastructure is also developing in Russia. All sea port infrastructure received a power increase amounting to 19.5 million tons. Between January and September the volume of cargo handling in the Russian ports increased by 3%, there is a development of the airport system. The airports handled more than 126 million passengers in 9 months. This is 2.5% more than in the same period in the previous year. The volume of domestic air transportation has increased markedly more than 16%
Talking about politics in public finance, Putin said: "During the first 11 months of this year the federal budget revenues amounted to 12.2 trillion, and the costs to 13 1 trillion. The budget deficit, we see, is 957 billion. The expected budget deficit for the current year is 2.8-2.9% of GDP. This is quite a satisfactory figure for the current situation in the economy. More than.’’
The Reserve Fund has been used this year to ensure a balanced annual budget. The Sovereign wealth funds as a whole are at a high level – 11.8% of the Reserve Fund amounted to 3 trillion 931 billion rubles, which is 5.3% of GDP, and the National Welfare Fund is 4 trillion 777 billion rubles, or 6.5% of GDP.
The government expects to reach economic growth of 0.7% in 2016, 1.9% growth in 2017, and a 2.4% increase in 2018. Citing these figures, Putin made a reservation, they were projected at a rate of $50 per barrel, "Now this rate is lower. Volatility is very high. We will not rush to reassess or make adjustments to the budget, because that would entail a reduction in the amount of funding in both the social sphere and the real sector, but the government, of course, is preparing scenarios for any situation."
Putin once again called for import substitution to be engaged in, "it will mean more equipment, and thus increasing productivity. And of course, we must continue to work to improve the mechanisms of economic management, fighting bureaucracy, creating a more attractive business environment and supportunt entrepreneurs who are addressing the challenges facing them and our economy as a whole."
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