The Russian market is the largest and potentially most attractive gas market for the gas monopoly "Gazprom". On the domestic market the group Gazprom sells more than half of the gas sold. The other half is exported, and not always without problems. Recently, Ukraine has refused to buy Russian gas, hoping that Moscow will give Kiev a bigger discount than was previously stated. However, Gazprom refused to accept the conditions of the Ukrainian authorities and stopped the supply of gas. The situation with the Turkish Stream gas pipeline also remains unclear. The European countries have been the most important consumers of Russian gas for more than 40 years. The dynamics of the gas supply to the European market depend on several factors, including economic growth, the dynamics of its own gas production, the market prices for other energy sources – especially in the power production – and the cost of gas on other world markets.
As suggested by the head of the Duma Committee for Energy, Paul Zavalny, the development of the gas industry, and the current production, are coming from demand. He noticed a decrease in demand in Europe and in Russia, but for different reasons.
Among the reasons for the decline in demand for gas in Russia, the expert cited the following factors: warm winters, increased nuclear power generation and energy efficiency.
In Europe, there are other reasons: the trend of reduction in demand against the backdrop of the US shale gas revolution, and cheap American coal. In addition, the share of renewable sources in electricity generation in Europe has increased to 22%. According to Zavalny, if in 2009 Europe consumed 600 billion cubic meters annually, now this figure is just 485 billion cubic meters.
Meanwhile, demand is recovering. If last year about 147.5 billion cubic meters of gas was delivered to Europe, and the year before – 160, this year the demand will be no less than 153-155 billion cubic meters.
"We expect a recovery in demand, and the growth rate will be at 0.8% per year. But at the same time, domestic gas production in Europe is decreasing, there is a problem in the Netherlands, and in Norway in the future. Therefore, by 2030 the supply shortfall could reach 80 billion cubic meters," the expert says.
And we are talking about the traditional markets – Germany, Holland, England. "15% of England receives gas from Russia. Therefore, the task of North Stream-2 is to deliver the necessary volumes of gas to compensate for the decrease in domestic gas production in Europe. And the pipeline, and the gas will be in demand. Therefore, such leading companies as Shell and others have signed a memorandum on the construction of this pipeline with pleasure."
