Events in the Middle East, the impact of crisis tendencies in national economies, the mechanisms of maintaining social stability and other factors pose new challenges to the countries of Central Asia. What are the issues of regional security and ways to solve them? What are the main trends in the development of the internal political processes? What is the format of bilateral and multilateral cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central Asia? The participants of the round table ‘Central Asia 2016: the political agenda for the year’ tried to answer this question.
Speaking about the foreign policy of Ashgabat, the director of the Institute of Regional Problems, Dmitry Zhuravlev, remarked that ‘’Turkmenistan is, I'd say, on the one hand, in the first place, an ally of China, but on the other hand, because it wants long-term cooperation, China dreams, probably, about a more stable Turkmenistan than it is. According to the cooperation of Turkmenistan with the neighbors, you know, the style of management of Turkmenistan does not lead to long-term cooperation with our neighbors."
As for Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the expert explained, which are key countries in Central Asia, ‘’they have been traditional competitors for many years, reaching back to at least the Soviet era. Like there was competition between Belarus and Ukraine in the European part of the USSR, so there is competition, and if you look, then a lot of analyses of things that are written in these two countries are written in comparison with ‘’them." Kazakhstan compares itself to Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to each other in various fields. It does not lead to conflicts such as that between Russia and Ukraine, it is not a conflict of war. But competition is always present. And so there is cooperation, but nevertheless everyone in this cooperation seeks its position, the position of leader. Indeed, the two countries can be internal macro leaders ".
According to Zhuravlev, ‘’Kyrgyzstan is also now focused simultaneously not on its neighbors, but on Russia and China. Another question is how it will be able immediately to catch up with the two countries, that is another matter, a more complex one. Today it is so. If you are in Bishkek, you will see that almost all the goods there are Chinese goods, on the one hand. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan is seriously committing itself to new cooperation. It is understood that this is a necessity partially, because it is necessary to commit. But again, there is no interregional cooperation, unfortunately. Internal links exist for a short time, but unfortunately they do not play such an important role in the interaction with the two giants of Russia and China. Because neither Japan nor the United States playing in Central Asia is interesting. "
Speaking of Tajikistan Zhuravlev recalled: "I remind you that we at one time conducted several rounds of talks with Tajikistan on economic cooperation, each of which ended with the beginning of the next. Therefore, no offense to our fellow Tajiks, it's not their fault, but to negotiate with them steadily is difficult, because the situation is very complicated. "
Expert sees two unions in Central Asia: Russian-Kazakh-Kyrgyz, the one that we saw in Astana. Another, perhaps, may be Uzbek-Turkish-American. But you will notice that there is no organization of Central Asia without Russia, without the United States, excluding China. And there is always the organization in which the countries of Central Asia are involved, but in broader associations. This is no accident. This does not mean that there are no regional leaders, this means that they are not definitive, unfortunately, today. This is really bad from an economic and social point of view, because the macro-region is more stable when there are internal connections. Simply put, if you have a lot of stairs in the house, it's better than having one. It will be easier to get out of it, it is easier to enter. But today this is not the case, today each country looks outwards from the macro-region rather than within it. Except, maybe, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, because they see themselves as leaders. All the others are seeking greater support from China, in Washington, Beijing and Moscow. "
Also Zhuravlev points out the potential role of the Persian card: "after the lifting of the economic restrictions Iran will play a big role in the macro-region, and it has cultural, social and economic opportunities there. But this is still tomorrow."
"it would be useful for the European community to strengthen inter-regional ties, but perhaps we are limited, we cannot apply our heads, if people are clearly focused on the United States and Beijing, they will be focused on them," the expert said.
