According to official data, in the first half of the year Armenia, saw progress in several spheres of the economy. The correlation between export and import in favor of the second has always concerned political and expert circles. But now the authorities say about the 13% export growth, while import pace is 6.2%. The industrial and agricultural sectors of economy improved. The industrial growth was 13.4% in the period from January to June; the agricultural growth – 10.2%.
Nevertheless, some important indexes do not correlate with the general socio-economic situation presented by the government. Economic activity is 7-8% in Armenia, but a price fall is seen at the market of houses. The socio-economic situation improves, but prices for apartments fall for unknown reasons. Moreover, the number of people who take mortgage loans increases. “It is difficult to find such imbalance - the economic growth and houses prices’ fall – in any other country. It is nonsense, as improvement of the socio-economic situation leads to quick increase of prices for houses,” the economic observer of the opposition newspaper Armenian Times, Aik Gevorkian, is sure.
According to official data, in recent three years flat prices in Yerevan decreased gradually. In 2010 1 sq. m in Yerevan cost $719, this year the index is $638. But decrease of houses prices didn’t lead to the growth of deals.
Moreover, Armenia still hasn’t settled such a painful economic issue as correlation of taxes and GDP. Taxes are only 17% of GDP, while in normal countries this index is at least 25%. The higher this index is, the less is the share of shadow economy. In Armenia the index doesn’t grow, thus, the shadow economy doesn’t reduce.
The other worrying tendency is veiled. In the first half of the year the volume of electricity produced by TPP increased by 44%. The index is possible, but only from the first sight. The fact is that the volume of electricity produced by the hydroelectric station decreased by 12%. It is well-known that electricity produced by TPP costs more than electricity produced by the hydroelectric station. It means electricity prices will grow for population.
The reasonable question is: if everything is so smooth, than why does the migration level grow, as well as the number of the poor? According to the migration service, 83760 people left Armenia in recent 7 months and they didn’t come back. Last year the index was 78644 people.
In 2010-2011 106 thousand people left Armenia. If the same migration pace continues, in 2010-2012 150 thousand people will leave Armenia. It is 5% of the population. The poverty level increased by 12% in comparison with 2008 in Armenia. The index is 35.8%. Therefore, all general socio-economic problems such as unemployment, migration, “shadow economics” growth, business monopolies are still unsettled.
