By "Vestnik Kavkaza"
It is time for unpopular reformsSince the beginning of the summer oil quotes have fallen by half, and in early 2015 it was close to the $45 per barrel mark for Brent. President of "LUKOIL" Vagit Alekperov gave a gloomy forecast for Russia, based on the recent statements of Saudi Arabia, that the oil price could fall to $25 per barrel. At the same time, Alekperov clarified that during the year there will be significant fluctuations in the price of oil.However, a chief economist at Otkrytie Capital investment group, Daria Isakova, believes that in the medium term oil prices will rise. She told a conference that she expected prices to return to $50 per barrel only by the end of the year and to $60 per barrel in 2016.The Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, Leonid Grigoriev, made an even more optimistic forecast: "The budget of Gulf countries is calculated at an oil price of $80 per barrel, therefore prices will remain at the current level for not too long. $80 is the income level which underscores the budgets of the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. If $60 or even $50 prices are stuck for a long time, then begins a terrible budget disbalance of all oil exporters. It becomes a socio-economic problem of the world's oil producers. I would consider normal the fact that prices may return to $78, but it requires economic recovery - of course, if there are no political events in oil-producing countries."However, according to Grigoriev, easy and quick recovery of rates is unlikely to happen, although most of the OPEC countries desperately need higher oil prices, much more than Russia. Meanwhile, today not only low oil prices have adversely affected the Russian economy, but also Western sanctions, big banks came under them: Sberbank, Gazprombank, VTB, Bank of Moscow, Rosselhozbank, the Russian National Commercial Bank.According to Daria Isakova, the process of easing sanctions is unlikely to last a long time, if the EU is ready to loosen them only on certain conditions: "This Monday the European Union introduced a document in which they talk about the possibility of separating the recognition of Crimea - they are not ready to do it - and the execution of the Minsk Agreement. So they are trying to say they are ready to ease sanctions if the Minsk Agreement is executed. And the overall weak position of key EU economies in addition."If the EU does not extend sanctions, the United States also will be forced to ease the pressure on Russia: "And if the EU will not be able to extend the sanctions, especially in the middle of the year, perhaps we will see relief from the United States after a while."Isakova believes that an extension of sanctions is unlikely, since the EU has no consensus on this issue: "They need to vote in consensus to carry out the extension of the sanctions. All 28 members must vote"for"."It is considered in Moscow that the purpose of the sanctions is to change the socio-economic conditions for the implementation of a change of power in Russia.However, Isakova noted "a high degree of tolerance of citizens of the RF to the weakening of the ruble." In the opinion of the expert, it shows that now is the time to carry out unpopular but necessary reforms: "In the past year we have seen a phenomenal, amazing for the Russian economy tolerance to the weakening of the ruble, because, except "Black Tuesday", huge queues for ATMs have not been fixed."How are forecasts of social tensions in the big cities justified ?"Social tensions will exist, but not so much as we imagine, because the consolidation of society is at a high level still. At this time, I think it is a very good time for unpopular reforms, and it must be done the sooner the better, because the election cycle is on the horizon. In fact, the key issue for the budget and for the stability of the entire economy is the question of raising the retirement age, and now is a time when people will react to it with the least negative effect."
Since the beginning of the summer oil quotes have fallen by half, and in early 2015 it was close to the $45 per barrel mark for Brent. President of "LUKOIL" Vagit Alekperov gave a gloomy forecast for Russia, based on the recent statements of Saudi Arabia, that the oil price could fall to $25 per barrel. At the same time, Alekperov clarified that during the year there will be significant fluctuations in the price of oil.
However, a chief economist at Otkrytie Capital investment group, Daria Isakova, believes that in the medium term oil prices will rise. She told a conference that she expected prices to return to $50 per barrel only by the end of the year and to $60 per barrel in 2016.
The Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, Leonid Grigoriev, made an even more optimistic forecast: "The budget of Gulf countries is calculated at an oil price of $80 per barrel, therefore prices will remain at the current level for not too long. $80 is the income level which underscores the budgets of the Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. If $60 or even $50 prices are stuck for a long time, then begins a terrible budget disbalance of all oil exporters. It becomes a socio-economic problem of the world's oil producers. I would consider normal the fact that prices may return to $78, but it requires economic recovery - of course, if there are no political events in oil-producing countries."
However, according to Grigoriev, easy and quick recovery of rates is unlikely to happen, although most of the OPEC countries desperately need higher oil prices, much more than Russia. Meanwhile, today not only low oil prices have adversely affected the Russian economy, but also Western sanctions, big banks came under them: Sberbank, Gazprombank, VTB, Bank of Moscow, Rosselhozbank, the Russian National Commercial Bank.
According to Daria Isakova, the process of easing sanctions is unlikely to last a long time, if the EU is ready to loosen them only on certain conditions: "This Monday the European Union introduced a document in which they talk about the possibility of separating the recognition of Crimea - they are not ready to do it - and the execution of the Minsk Agreement. So they are trying to say they are ready to ease sanctions if the Minsk Agreement is executed. And the overall weak position of key EU economies in addition."
If the EU does not extend sanctions, the United States also will be forced to ease the pressure on Russia: "And if the EU will not be able to extend the sanctions, especially in the middle of the year, perhaps we will see relief from the United States after a while."
Isakova believes that an extension of sanctions is unlikely, since the EU has no consensus on this issue: "They need to vote in consensus to carry out the extension of the sanctions. All 28 members must vote"for"."
It is considered in Moscow that the purpose of the sanctions is to change the socio-economic conditions for the implementation of a change of power in Russia.
However, Isakova noted "a high degree of tolerance of citizens of the RF to the weakening of the ruble." In the opinion of the expert, it shows that now is the time to carry out unpopular but necessary reforms: "In the past year we have seen a phenomenal, amazing for the Russian economy tolerance to the weakening of the ruble, because, except "Black Tuesday", huge queues for ATMs have not been fixed."
How are forecasts of social tensions in the big cities justified ? "Social tensions will exist, but not so much as we imagine, because the consolidation of society is at a high level still. At this time, I think it is a very good time for unpopular reforms, and it must be done the sooner the better, because the election cycle is on the horizon. In fact, the key issue for the budget and for the stability of the entire economy is the question of raising the retirement age, and now is a time when people will react to it with the least negative effect."
