Ahead of the elections to the State Duma, social scientists conducted public opinion research. Lev Gudkov, the head of Levada-Center, says the elections in Russia are being held in the context of the crisis, which influences the resources that support the authorities. “The economic situation is unclear. The financial situation of Russia’s residents is worsening. It is an issue of concern for the most modern, educated and successful part of the society, the middle class, who are living in major cities,” the social scientist said. “These people are concerned at the prospect of stagnation. They view critically all current events and think that the government cannot solve the coming problems,” he added. According to him, this view characterizes most Russians. More than half of Russia’s citizens think that the government has no anti-crisis program and it has no resources to continue the alternative model of development.
That is why the ratings of United Russia have dropped dramatically. Lev Gudkov emphasizes that the party is conducting a poor election campaign. One evidence of is TV-debates, in which representatives of the ruling party look uninspiring.
The so-called reshuffle played a negative role too. It has weakened the positions of Dmitry Medvedev and put United Russia in an unclear situation. The population feels that Vladimir Putin, who is represented by the state propaganda apparatus as the national leader, is trying to distance himself from United Russia. The foundation of the National Front, which appeared to be unsuccessful, and Putin’s attempts to be a non-partisan politician prove the tendency.
The decrease in the authorities’ support is significant first of all in the major cities, for example, Moscow. This is not accidental, as the market economy is the most developed in the capital. Residents of Moscow and other cities do not share the patriarchal views of rural people. Only 10% of Moscow residents viewed the reshuffle positively, 33% - negatively. In rural districts the data is different: 39% vs 17%. Even though 65% of population lives in small towns and the countryside, their role in the economy is significantly less. Production of goods and services is concentrated in major cities, while minor residential areas cannot survive without the permanent support of the center.
So there is distinct location specificity in attitude to the current power. In the countryside support is still significant, while residents of major cities view the authorities sceptically. In general only 34% of Russian citizens are ready to vote for the ruling power, in Moscow - only 20%.
Moreover, Russians look critically on the elections as well. Only 28% of Russians think elections are fare, free and legal. 48% think that elections are a fight between bureaucratic clans. And only 8% consider that the election result will make their position better (in Moscow only 3%).
In comparison with previous election campaigns the current elections are not very interesting for Russians. “Most people believe they cannot influence the process of making decisions, even if they participate in elections. That is why almost 58% of Russian citizens say politics are not interesting for them and they don’t follow political events,” Lev Gudkov notes. The tendency has strengthened during the current election campaign.
Boris Dubin, the head of the social and political research department of Leveda-Center, thinks that the elections have a forced character and their result is predetermined. At the same time, the political and economic situation in the country is not clear. “Since early 2011 ratings of top officials of the state have been falling. The trust rate in the government is falling. These factors influence the attitude to the elections and readiness to vote,” Dubin says.
However, the majority of Russian citizens will come to ballot stations, Dubin thinks. But the rate of trust in the ruling party has lowered significantly. Most residents of the country understand that the mass media pays more attention to the ruling party, but a fewer number of Russians connect their hopes for the future with United Russia. This is important, as the citizens know the party, as it has been holding power for many years.
Boris Dubin says that the most important is not the result of voting, but its circumstances. It is important how the population will assess the elections, whether they are legal or not. At the moment Russians consider the forthcoming parliamentary elections negatively.
