Iran's internal political situation

Western countries “plan to ruin brotherhood relations of peoples in the region and militarize the Middle East by provocation of such unreasonable phenomena as Iraniphobia, aimed at selling lethal weapon to the countries of the region,” the Iranian envoy in the UN, Seid Muhammad Ali Mottakinejad stated. Such a position of Tehran on Western activity was caused by the EU's intention to launch additional sanctions against Iran. At the same time, experts discuss the influence of contradictions in the political elite of Iran on the situation around the country. The point is plans of the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Hoseyni Khamenei to make Iran a parliamentary republic and decrease role of Mahmud Akhmadinejad.

Commenting on plans of Ayatollah Khamenei, the leading researcher of the RAS Eastern Studies Institute, Vladimir Sazhin said that it is not a mark of sharp internal political competition between clans. The expert touched on rivalry with Akhmadinejad’s group. “I give you an example of the 1930s in Russia, when Stalin got rid of old revolutionists (not necessary kill) to appoint his officials, people whom he trusted. In Iran the situation is the same. Akhmadinejad is a quite young man for the system, who is supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is not only a military organization, but also a powerful financing-economic structure, and flows of oil dollars are running through it. Of course these people want to run the state like revolutionists, who initiated the revolution. In general, Akhadinejad wants to rid of these people.” Twists and turns of this conflict are well-known. In May Akhadinejad didn’t work for 10 days, hoping he would be supported by top officership of the IRGC, but it didn’t happen. Then he came back. Khamenei proposed idea of liquidation of the presidential republic in Iran and establishing of a parliamentary republic. “In fact the president in Iran plays the role of elected Premier, his power is limited. All power is in hands of Khamenei. However, the parliament is under control of the opposition to Akhamdenijad.” Nevertheless, in the nearest future such dramatic change of management structure in Iran is hardly possible.

The Director General of the Contemporary Iranian Studies Center, Ridjab Sapharov, thinks that even if the decision were made, it wouldn’t touch on Akhmadinejad, as his second presidential term comes to an end. “Iran is a civilized state. Such decisions are made by referendum, which will be held long before new elections. It is obvious that Iranian society isn’t ready,” the expert says. According to Sapharov, in the nearest future Iran won’t become a parliamentary state. Akhmadinejad didn’t hope for people would come to the streets and support him. “In opposite he was waiting for invitation. When he was told: either you come back to work or announced about something else, he came back, as he understood that conflict with the Supreme Leader is meaningless. Thus, it was logical result of the situation,” Sapharov concluded.

Meanwhile, Russia is concerned with Busher atomic power station, which attracts specialists of the Armenian APS to work. This situation was commented by the director of the Social and Political Research Centre, Vladimir Yevseyev: “I would like to remind you about one aspect concerning the Armenian APS. As you know during Spitak earthquake the station was shut down. The staff simply left the station. Those days specialists from the Kola Peninsula Atomic Power Station were carried by planes to Armenia. Serious problems were prevented. It is a historic fact. I would like Russian specialists to be present at the Busher nuclear power plant during the whole work of the station. Russia has the potential for this.”