Interview by David Stepanyan, exclusively to VK
The head of the Armenian Center for National and Strategic Studies, Manvel Sarkisyan, told VK correspondent David Stepanyan about the most recent strategies of the Armenian political parties, the electoral system and the oligarchs, as well as commenting on the influence of global developments on the situation in Armenia.
- The world has seen the birth of a whole series of new democratic movements. In these conditions both the power and the opposition in Armenia try to show their intention to build a truly democratic state. However, it seems none of them actually knows how to do it…
- It is true. The authorities are tied by the oligarchic mechanism of administration, in which no free elections are possible. The same goes for a fair judicial system. If there are free elections and uncorrupt courts, no autocracy or oligarchy is possible. And the Armenian oligarchs understand that and do all they can to sabotage these institutions of democracy.
All Armenian political parties try to legalize this oligarchical system. This contradicts the very definition of a political party that should rely on such democratic institutions as elections, etc. Today’s parties in Armenia only try to win as many dividends as possible from the ruling group. I’ve had conversations with members of many different parties and all of them had to acknowledge that they have no other legal means of influencing the government. So, paradoxical as it sounds, ‘opposition’ parties legitimize the existing non-democratic regime. The public has no illusions; it doesn’t hope to have a chance to really elect the parliament or the government. Everyone knows that the election results will be disappointing. Nevertheless, everybody is going to participate in the polls, as they feel they have no choice – the political parties have convinced them of it.
- Do you see any way out of this vicious circle?
- Fortunately, yes. I believe the popular protest movement should distance itself from all political parties. This will inevitably lead to the collapse of this oligarchical system, which is already in a state of deep crisis. The oligarchical system always tries to divide all spheres of influence, but now the oligarchs are failing to agree with each other, and those who have the power try to strengthen the repressive system.
If we want to find a solution to our problem, we should address the experience of other countries, such as Poland, Chili, the South African Republic. All these countries overcame corruption with the help of non-party popular movements aimed against the existing ‘opposition’ parties, as well as against the government. Only a strong civic movement can change the shape of a governmental system, and it doesn’t necessarily have to turn into a violent revolution.
- Do you think Armenian society is ready for such an endeavour?
- The depression of Armenia’s economy and social sphere is vividly illustrated by the most intensive emigration. The period of lawlessness and distress is lasting far too long in Armenia and the authorities have already lost all their legitimacy. We’ve been hoping to achieve changes in our political system via traditional political means for 20 years, but it is obvious that none of the existing political parties is able to conduct such changes. We’ve been hoping to restore ‘constitutional rule’, but in fact it never existed here. Now the public understands this and is ready to take up the task of constructing a constitutional state from scratch.
- Does the global political situation affect the state of affairs in Armenia?
- The revolutionary explosion in the Middle East that happened last year had a great effect on the situation in Armenia. First of all, it affected the policies of the world’s leading powers, and Armenia is quite dependent on them. The future of our partnership with NATO and the EU became unclear and our government proved to be unable to sketch out long-term policies in these new unstable conditions. Half-a-century of relative political stability (the previous wave of change came with the fall of the Berlin Wall ) made ruling regimes in many of the world’s countries obsolete. People came out onto the streets and were ready to die for their cause – and this means something. It means they couldn’t live the way they had anymore. As for foreign interventions, they all follow standard political patterns – some powers (like Russia) try to protect old allies, while others (like Turkey) try to create new ones.
- Could you make a prognosis concerning the current situation in Syria and Iran?
- It is obvious that the region is becoming less and less stable, so it is very hard to make any prognoses. But the very state of uncertainty is in a way a restrictive factor for the governments involved – they make big claims, but in fact they can’t risk taking any real action in such an unpredictable and potentially explosive situation.
