Caucasus awaits Putin

By Ekaterina Tesemnikova, exclusively to VK

As March 4 approaches, the media of the North and the South Caucasus issue more and more reports on the upcoming presidential elections in Russia. As the results of the polls are commonly viewed as pre-determined, the reports focus on actual problems of polling process organization. Nevertheless, some South Caucasian agencies express a timid hope that a renewed Kremlin would conduct a more cautious policy towards Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, especially in conditions when the geo-political priorities of the West have shifted. Some experts say that when the US troops are removed from Iraq and Afghanistan in 2012, the global as well as the regional balance of power will change; and Moscow has to brace itself for the upcoming aggravation of the situation in Central Asia and the Caucasus. 

Some dreamers in Tbilisi hope that the new Russian government would radically change its policy towards Georgia. Certain hopes for amelioration of Russian-Georgian relations were also expressed by Georgian ex-President Eduard Shevarnadze and connects this hope with Putin becoming the President again. Shevarnadze disagreed with the statement that Putin ‘dislikes Georgia’ and that his new presidency would be a catastrophe for Georgia. He pointed out that while Medvedev refused to meet with Saakashvili, Putin met with Georgian opposition leaders. The ex-President also referred to the 2008 war and said that an EU commission established that it was the Georgian side that forced Russian forces into the conflict. 

As for South Ossetia itself, some politicians there also place their hopes in Putin’s return: ex-candidate for presidency Alla Dzhioyeva even spoke of creating a ‘Popular Front’ in the republic to support Putin and promised that 16,000 of her followers would join it. The re-election is due to take place in Ossetia three weeks after the Russian elections. 

Another ex-Georgian republic, Abkhazia, will host polling stations in all major towns, as a lot of Abkhaz citizens are also Russian citizens. 

Armenian experts are almost unanimous stating the Russian elections won’t have any effect on the Kremlin’s policy towards Yerevan. Nevertheless, two ‘Putin-clubs’ appeared in the republic and plan to organize propaganda activities. However, a lot of Armenians are sceptical about the idea, taking into account the fact that in Russia itself the attitude towards Putin is far from being unambiguous. 

As for the North Caucasus, the most interesting event connected to the pre-election rally activity was the address of the terrorist leader Doku Umarov, who said that he had changed his attitude towards the general civilian population of Russia: previously he deemed it to be his enemy, as it didn’t protest the government’s actions. But from now on the terrorist leader ordered his followers to stop attacking civilian targets. Moscow officials reacted harshly to the address, saying that the media that broadcasted and cited it were accomplices of terrorism. The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, said that such a criminal figure as Umarov would say anything to be cited by the western press, which appears to be happy to give him the roster. The Chechen President also pointed out that Umarov is no idealistic fighter, but a mere criminal who organizes kidnappings in order to gain ransom.  

At the same time, President Medvedev said it’s possible that terrorists of the North Caucasus will take up a more active position on the eve of the elections, but the republics’ law enforcement agencies are ready to fight off any extremist activity. In general, however, the preparations for the elections in the North Caucasus are no different than in any other Russian region:  surveillance cameras are being installed on the polling stations, opposition activists organize rallies ‘For fair elections’, pro-governmental organizations gather demonstrations in support of Putin. And the people of the Caucasus attend these demonstrations, despite the frosts.