by VK
Political analyst Alexey Malashenko, a member of the research council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, has described his vision of resolving the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and Iran and the formation of a new government in Russia in a conversation with VK.
- What changes in South Caucasus do you expect when Putin takes office? Would the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh change? Do you see any progress?
- I believe the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh will not change. It is a long story, because the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh itself is a question of recognition of its independence or not. Azerbaijan will never recognize it, Armenia will. There may be a bargain, it has been going on for a long time, before the elections in Russia and after. It is about freeing Azerbaijani territories that are not part of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. But this is a very-very complicated problem. I do not rule out that the range of negotiators would expand this way. I do not rule out new active efforts of Russia in this aspect, but let’s face the truth, there are conflicts that never have a final solution. The conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh is one of them.
- How will the range of negotiators expand?
- I believe that Europe will take a more active part, definitely Turkey. Turks are very ambitious in this case and they will not only cooperate, but try to compete with Russia in this aspect. This is not enough.
- What picture of the situation around Iran do you have? What could escalation of tensions cause?
I believe that the most important thing is not the situation around Iran, but the situation in Iran itself. There are great tensions indeed and development of the situation will depend on the result of these tensions, who will be on the peak of power, who becomes the next president, whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stays at power. So far I have a feeling as though, despite numerous publications, the Incumbent President Obama will insist on diplomatic means to settle the problem, at least, until the elections. If he stays, it is one case, if he does not, it is a totally different problem.
- Could you make forecasts on formation of Medvedev’s government?
- First of all, it will be very complicated. I assume it will take a long time to form and even some ministers appointed the upcoming weeks may leave later. The Cabinet needs to conclude reforms, very complicated ones, and start new ones. If it is realized, it will be real work (and the reforms are rather unpopular), there will be need to sacrifice ministers. Some ministers will refuse to realize reforms or failure to organize them. So I believe that formation will be long and the Cabinet will be changeable.
