by Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European bureau of VK
Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has done his best to stop the violence in Syria. He has visited Damascus, Tehran, Moscow and Beijing. The plan consists of 6 points and was approved by Syria. Experts believe that approval was forced by Russia and China. The recent incident on the Syrian-Turkish border escalated international tensions, Moscow and Beijing realized that if Damascus was not appeased, the situation could get uncontrollable.
After the Syrian shootout that caused some Turkish casualties, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that he would request military assistance from NATO if Syria violates the border. According to article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, Turkey, as any other member of the alliance, may call for assistance. The same article states that an attack on a NATO state means attacking the alliance, Associated Press reports.
According to the plan passed by the Syrian government and opposition, the sides should cease fire at 6 am on April 12. Artillery attacks on residential areas were reduced. The situation in the country has become more peaceful, RIA Novosti reports. A group of international observers will arrive in Syria, which is why Norwegian General-Major Robert Mood made another visit to Syria on Friday.
Another point of the plan is withdrawal of military vehicles from cities and villages, access of humanitarian aid, halt of random arrests and start of political dialogue between President Bashar al-Assad and Syrian opposition represented by the Syrian National Council. No progress in withdrawal of heavy military vehicles has been registered. Despite al-Assad’s assurances and some video records showing departure of the vehicles, the regime is reluctant to fulfill the point. No wonder Annan urged the UN Security Council to convince Damascus to remove the military vehicles from Syrian cities.
The primary goal is to maintain peace until international observers arrive to the state. “The UN and the Syrian government reached an agreement on setting a monitoring mission, they are discussing technical details at the moment”, Vesti.ru cites Syrian representative to the UN Bashar Jaafari as saying. “As soon as the UN Security Council passes a related resolution, we will start its fulfillment”, the Syrian diplomat noted.
Russia supports setting a monitoring mission in Syria, a group of observers may arrive soon, because it is essential for peace. “Russia was asked to provide an observer from the UN monitoring mission at the Golan Heights and we approved it immediately”, the diplomat said.
Russia supports the positive progress Kofi Annan reached. The US has a much more critical approach. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Syrian President Bashar Assad had not fulfilled all conditions of the peace plan of Kofi Annan, special representative of the UN and LAS. She noted after talks with eight mediators that tanks have not been withdrawn yet, so pressure on Assad would increase, ITAR-TASS reports. However, all ministers approved Annan’s plan. Clinton said that its fulfillment would be a significant step towards peaceful settlement of conflict.
The main intrigue is about readiness of world's leading states to fulfill Annan’s peace plan. This is where controversies of Russia and China on the one side and US and most LAS and EU states on the other may grow. The former want Bashar al-Assad to stay at power, the latter want him to resign.
The Syrian crisis should be considered in the context of the Iranian nuclear program. The two processes cross due to ties of Damascus and Tehran. That is why further activities in Syria and evaluations made by international observers and world centers of power would determine success of negotiations between Iran and six mediators which start in Istanbul at the end of this week. Many experts believe that taking down Bashar al-Assad’s regime is an indirect strike on Iran. In other words, the Syrian crisis is pretty much part of the Iranian problem, although this does not justify actions of the regime and its murders and illegal arrests of civilians.
Discussions of the Iranian nuclear problem and fulfillment of peaceful obligations by Damascus will go simultaneously. Iran and Syria are entering the decisive stage of talks, which may ease the situation or cause new tensions.
