VK experts on Caspian politics

Recently negotiations over new pipeline projects that would bring Caspian gas to foreign markets, have sharply intensified. According to some experts, the EU leadership is trying to take control over international gas policy and demonstrates intentions to directly participate in determining the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Amidst this situation, Moscow is trying to develop a dialogue between the countries of the Caspian basin - Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

The Director of the Center for Relevant Research "Alternative" (Kazakhstan), Andrei Chebotarev, told VK that "although the issue of Caspian cooperation is in one way or another discussed in all the Caspian countries, there is no systematic framework for it to be widely covered and promoted. Only in Russia is the very notion of Caspian cooperation being actively promoted at the popular level. In other countries, including Kazakhstan, we do not see the same tendency. Now Kazakhstan sees its main priority as being integration within the Customs Union and Common Economic Space, and they are the most-discussed issues. The Caspian Sea is discussed basically only in terms of ecology and biodiversity conservation. To a certain extent the issues of the oil and gas sectors, their transparency, and improvement of the socio-economic status of the Caspian littoral areas are also discussed. But that is it. As for broad cooperation between countries, it exists at best on the bilateral level, and is even marked by a regional character. "

Speaking about his attitude to the Eurasian union, the Kazakh expert said: "Firstly it is necessary that the Customs Union and then the Common Economic Space fulfil their basic missions and become fully formed, and only then can we go further. I support the position of our president, who, in principle, if one believes the criticism from his Belarusian counterpart Lukashenko, has blocked the formation of the Eurasian Union. Integration is already taking place at an accelerated pace, and one must first finish something and only then start something new. Everything must be done step by step."
Commenting on the prospects for Russian-Kazakh cooperation in the field of oil and gas, Chebotarev suggested that "everything will depend on the development of the extraction and transportation of oil and gas. The present-day situation is somewhat critical. If we look at the results of the last year, we'll see that, for example, LUKoil has abandoned two projects in the Caspian Sea of Kazakhstan because there was no oil found there. At the same time Russia draws Kazakhstan's attention to the fact that the Kurmangazy field, which according to the agreement from 1998 is under the jurisdiction of our country, also does not produce any results, whereas the Central Akmola field, developed by Kazakhstan and Russia in cooperation, has some prospects."

As for the future Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, the Kazakh expert believes that "it is more a political project, implemented by the European Union and the United States, than economic. If it was an actual economic project, bringing certain profit to the member countries, then Kazakhstan would become actively engaged in it, perhaps even Russia would consider the possibility. It seems that Iran wanted to participate, but it was made clear to it that it would not be involved. Thus, politics prevail here. "

The Director of the Center for Contemporary Politics, director of the Institute for Caspian Cooperation Sergei Mikheev, called the feasibility of the Trans-Caspian pipeline "vague" in an interview to VK.  "Although the intentions of the parties are known, there are also Western partners, or, say, those who would like to develop this project. But I think that so far this project remains doubtful. Of course, it is important for Russia, as it meets the environmental standards. And there is nothing to hide in the fact that we are not very interested in the development of a corridor for the supply of hydrocarbons from Central Asia to the West. Moreover, it is contrary to our interests, resulting in bringing major geopolitical players with their vague intentions to the region. Most projects on the Southern Corridor, implemented by the West in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, have a hidden political agenda rather than an economic one, since there is no vital economic need for the West to receive oil and gas via this route. There is a desire to use this route to increase its influence in the region, to penetrate the Central Asian, Caspian and South Caucasian regions, to outplay such players as Russia, China and Iran, and, ultimately, to impose loyal political regimes. I am absolutely convinced of that. It is all being presented in the light of economic expediency, but the ultimate strategic goal is mostly political. That is why I am sceptical about the project."

Speaking about the chances of Russia to control policy in the Caspian region, Mikheyev said: "The chance is always there, but there is a question of how to implement it. I think that there was such an opportunity right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but we did not do anything similar back then at all. At that moment we decided to give it to the mercy of the external market. In fact, who launched and made possible all the ongoing processes there? The new Russia, the new Russian elite. The team led by Boris Yeltsin failed in all these policy areas at the time, and now we are reaping the fruits of decades of inaction, or of vacillating from one side to another. Of course, a lot has been lost, perhaps even irretrievably. On the other hand, we are talking very little about the fact that, if Russia withdrew from the region, which many desire, there would be catastrophic consequences for the region, I am absolutely sure of that. I am deeply convinced that the complete withdrawal of Russia from Central Asia or the Caucasus would cause negative problems, especially for those regions.
A great number of borders, which were outlined in Soviet times by administrative means, are still kept because they are recognized by Russia. When Russia stops recognizing them, the borderlines will start to shift and there will be a lot of people who would want to reshape the area. And it is not clear how these countries will deal with such a situation. I am sure that Russia is the only and main guarantor of stability and territorial integrity of states in the region. This concerns, first of all, the Central Asian countries and all the other former Soviet states."