Our web-site has already recently discussed the future of the majorintegrational organizations, in particular those aimed at sustaining security and stability in such regions as Central Asia, the South Caucasus and some Western regions. We referred to the CSTO, the SCO, the CIS and EvrAzES.
Events in Kyrgyzstan have shown the weak points of most of the above-mentioned structures, which appeared to be unable and not ready to render effective and timely assistance to the Kyrgyz government and extinguish tensions in the southern regions of the republic.
But we are not going to speak about the Central Asian region, for the disadvantages of the CSTO and the CIS can be easily projected onto the south Caucasus region, in which there are still conflicts creating tension, threatening stability and peace in the region and the entire world. Meanwhile, existing integrational structures on their own can hardly render the required assistance in reaching a compromise between conflicting sides, be it Akhazia and Georgia or Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In the light of these circumstances, the future of integrational projects in the post-Soviet area is quite doubtful. The time has come to examine all available sources for restructuring, in order to
sustain peace effectively. Frankly speaking, I do not harbour any hope for change in this sphere. After all, following the conflict of August 2008 between Georgia and South Ossetia, this opinion has become widespread in the expert community. However, it has resulted in nothing more than words. And there are no grounds to consider changes will happen after the latest tension in the post-Soviet region. The CSTO, for example, was established on the basis of a project then called the Collective Security Treaty (CST), which included Azerbaijan along with other member-states.
Meanwhile, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict highlighted the differences between Azerbaijan's and CST interests, and Baku decided to withdraw from the organization. Taking into consideration the fact that Armenia is a CSTO member state, while Azerbaijan is not, many experts wonder what would happen in the case of a military conflict between the sides in Nagorno-Karabakh, and whether the CSTO would render Armenia military assistance in case of an outbreak of war with Azerbaijan.
I am absolutely sure that recent events in Kyrgyzstan have clearly shown the real power of the CSTO. It can in fact provide political assistance and humanitarian aid for the population in an urgent
situation. Whether this is good or not, the truth is that the creation of a NATO analogue in post-Soviet space has been passed over.
Aleksei Vlasov. Exclusively for VK.
