North Caucasus: diagnosis and forecast



Pavel Martynov. Exclusive to VK

Neither the Kremlin nor the White House conceals that the North Caucasus is considered to be the most difficult region, and settlement of the NCFD republics’ problems will remain a priority for the federal authorities for a long time. At the same time, during the past 18 months the North Caucasus theme became the focus of interests of the constructive opposition, including Yabloko. According to the leader of the party, Sergey Mitrokhin, Yabloko “wants to continue the opposition line in the situation in the North Caucasus, like it was since the Chechen campaigns. The way of making Chechnya peaceful which was chosen by the government causes a lot of questions. Reliance on one of clans which expressed loyalty to power and gained the republic for possessing has always seemed doubtful for us. As soon as a weakening of the central power takes place, the motivation would back, and nobody can say how this clan will act in this case.”

The co-chairman of Freedom of Conscience Institute, Sergey Buryanov, pays attention to difficulties connected with freedom of conscience in the North Caucasus: “Ethnic and confessional topic is fundamental here: the state is not neutral, the authorities support one of Islamic branches – Sufism, and persecute “wrong” Muslims. Persecutions and clericalization of the society cause the radicalization of Islam.”

The editor-in-chief of the magazine “Emergency Stock,” Andrei Zakharov, is sure that “we cannot deal with problems of the Caucasus without touching upon the problem of federalism… However, there is a threat that we will come to the encouragement of federalism in the situation of Russian nationalism’s growth, which is turning into a political force. It will lead to a heavy reaction in the ethnic republics. As a result federation wouldn’t satisfy anyone and the state would collapse.”

Dmitry Alexandrov from the Russian Institute of Strategic Research believes that civic institutes in the Caucasus should be used carefully, because measures which are effective for a modern society cannot be applied to a traditional society. In such communities democratic institutes could lead to development of nationalism and tension – some clans or ethnic groups afraid of the situation when other clans would beat them. Thus, good intentions could lead to destabilization of the regions like it happened in Kabardino-Balkaria.

According to Sergey Mitrokhin, for stabilization of the situation in the North Caucasus it is necessary to provide integration of the Caucasus into the legal, education, and cultural space of Russia: “It is very important to reject ambitious plans. A limited minimum of what can be implemented should be defined. I.e. equal legal approach to citizens notwithstanding their ethnicity or origin… If we do not suggest alternative, Islam will be a base for growth of radical Islam.”

The executive secretary of Yabloko, Galina Mikhalyova, thinks that “there are all-Russian systemic problems, but in the Caucasus they have gained a special character. We shouldn’t underestimate the problem of intensive Islamization and regime peculiarities of every region. We should develop a certain method of solving problems, considering specificity of each republic.”

The coordinator of the political committee of Yabloko, Boris Misnik, believes that “remained industrial enterprises in the NCFD are holding infrastructure of the cities and consolidating people around them. However, for further development of industry on the region the political will is necessary.”

It seemed the will has begun to appear in recent times. Few days ago Premier Dmitry Medvedev said that he would deal with the North Caucasus development personally and head the governmental commission on socio-economic development of the NCFD. According to Medvedev, settlement of the most important problems of unemployment and infrastructure construction in the North Caucasus depends on coordinated activities of the federal authorities and ministries and local officials of the NCFD republics.

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