Today the expert community of the South Caucasus is wondering whether the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton's visit will give impetus to the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Bakillar.az and Trend cite the VK chief-editor's point of view, according to which Clinton has confirmed position expressed by the US and Russian presidents following the G8 summit in Toronto. According to Alexei Vlasov this position meets the interests of the Azerbaijani side, what may be considered as success of its diplomacy. "There were made many statements and declarations on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, yet now we may assert that mediator states have laid down clear conditions for the conflict settlement. In these terms the document is a breakthrough. Now it's for Yerevan to decide and reaction of the Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan will depend not only on the internal factors, but also on Armenian Diaspora. Due to the subjective facilitation in the Armenian foreign policy, I can't state with certainty that this breakthrough will be backed by Yerevan," Vlasov said. He also added that details of the implementation of this idea may be discussed later at a meeting of the sides.
Meanwhile, Vlasov considers Clinton's visit demonstrates that appetites of the US diplomacy do not always meet its capabilities. It was of great importance for Clinton to show that US is still an active player at the post-Soviet area, which offers its South Caucasus partners some model of resolution local conflicts with Washington's assistance. But if this scheme fits the US foreign policy in Eastern Europe, in particular Poland, we can't say the same about Azerbaijan, as Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is unlikely to be resolved without participation of other mediators, especially Moscow, Brussels and Ankara.
Commenting on rumors about liberation of the Azerbaijani Karabadjarskii and Fizulinskii region and further allocation of Russian and the US troops in the upper mentioned territories Vlasov said there are good chances for this scenario. The joint statement of co-chair OSCE Minsk Group states announced at the Toronto G-8 summit gives ground for this view. Meanwhile Vlasov doubts the possibly of peacemakers allocation in the conflict zone, no matter US or Russian, as consequences of this step are quite unpredictable for Yerevan and Baku. The security of Azerbaijani and Armenian population will probably be discussed during bilateral negotiations. This may become a great step forward.
Speaking about results of Clinton's visit Tbilisi, Vlasov stated the relations with Georgia are single success of the US diplomacy in South Caucasus. "By all appearances rhetoric on South Ossetia and Abkhazia will get tougher in US, and this is really good news for Saakashvili. Meanwhile Washington won't bit on confrontation scenario of Russian-Georgian conflict's settlement. According to recent statements of Moscow and Tbilisi both sides make steps for reestablishing interstate relations. In conclusion Vlasov added that in general Clinton put a brave front, while US foreign diplomacy shows under-action. "But here we should keep in mind that all this issues are secondary in comparison to Iran, which worries US more than others," Vlasov said in conclusion.
