Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan are now able to enjoy greater political independence
The Secretary of State’s visit to the South Caucasus countries is widely debated in the world's mass media, although Ms. Clinton herself didn’t give any particular motive for such an earnest analysis. Journalists and experts will no doubt continue talk about the USA retreating from the South Caucasus, or at least losing some of its influence in this region. The best example of this trend is the Azerbaijani political elite, “pro-Western” not so long ago, now turning to a “national-oriented” policy, which is often in conflict with American interests.
Of course, Hillary Clinton could promise Ilham Aliyev to hasten the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, but we should bear in mind that the American factor, important as it is, cannot be decisive in this issue. The new status of the situation (i.e. the Armenian occupation of territories bordering on Nagorno-Karabakh) is more likely due to the efforts of Russia than the USA. It is Kremlin policy that gives the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks the necessary stimulus.
Therefore, this conflict cannot be the key argument for Hillary Clinton to strengthen America's influence in the region. The support of Georgia is much more vital for US interests, so Ms. Clinton and Mikhail Saakashvili could act in unison. The toughest statement of the State Secretary was that on non-recognition of spheres of influence in post-Soviet states. That was a transparent response to the Russian leadership’s statement about Russian interests in Ukraine and Georgia.
Clinton and Obama are no doubt playing the old “good-cop-bad-cop” scenario. Obama tries to “reset” relations between the USA and Russia, while Clinton tries to prevent the Kremlin from gaining any ultimate advantage in some questions. American diplomacy cannot yet think of another way of getting on with Russia. With all these aspects taken into account, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan are now able to enjoy a greater political independence. While the great powers are playing an “entrenched” game, the South Caucasus states can conduct their own policies. This state of affairs could be maintained until one of the leading players tries to get involved, most likely the USA through military action against Iran. Until then the status quo will be maintained.
Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively for VK
