The phenomena of Ivanishvili and Tsarukyan are absolutely different
, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus Institute
Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The political scientist and head of the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, gave an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza on the coming presidential elections in Armenia.
- Four months are left ahead of the presidential elections. However, even today representatives of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia and some pro-government experts speak about a victory for Serge Sargsyan and the impossibility of an opposition candidate succeeding. What do you think about this?
- I think these statements are truthful. The point is not in the pro-government direction, but in the situation. Today it is obvious that the only candidate who can seriously claim to compete with the current president is the leader of Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan, or some other member of the party, for instance Vardan Oskanyan.
Any other candidate without the support of Prosperous Armenia – Raffi Ovannisyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan – is not a serious rival for Sargsyan.
We saw competition between the RPA and Prosperous Armenia in the parliamentary elections on May 6. The two forces fought, using similar instruments. It wasn’t a struggle of ideologies, but a struggle of technologies. There are various ways to attract voters: from administrative resources to construction of roads and giving gifts.
The parliamentary elections showed the citizens and the observers how the RPA gains victories. Since that time nothing has changed: PA hasn’t improved, the RPA has not been weakened.
Thus, it is natural to predict that the RPA, which controls the state structure, has more chances of winning than PA.
Another issue is that the competition is focused on what percentage of the vote the main rival of Sargsyan will gain and whether a second round will take place. This risk is realized by the president and his team. They will have to share power with a candidate who enters a second round.
- Some experts compare Bidzina Ivanishvili and Gagik Tsarukyan. Is this an adequate comparison?
- To draw such parallels means to have no idea what Georgia is, what the political situation that has appeared there is and to see no difference between the political systems of Armenia and Georgia.
The phenomena of Ivanishvili and Tsarukyan are absolutely different.
First of all, Ivanishvili is 10 times richer than Tsarukyan.
Secondly, it seems Ivanishvili is the richest person in the Caucasus but he didn't make his capital in the Caucasus, as one cannot get so much money in the Caucasus. His capital is not in Georgia, but abroad. Tsarukyan earns his money in Armenia and his capital is situated in Armenia.
Thirdly (most importantly), Armenia and Georgia represent very different political and economic systems. Armenia has an absolutely different business structure. Saakashvili’s power required a vertical regime. Georgia, unlike Armenia, had no opposition. Ivanishvili managed to consolidate all the protest political forces from liberals to radical nationalists. Gagik Tsarukyan would be like Ivanishvili, if he contradicted the whole system.
Armenia has a different situation and we couldn’t have Ivanishvili, just as Georgia couldn’t get Tsarukyan. Georgian Tsarukyans have died in London after drinking the wrong tea or losing all their capital.
Russia, the West, and even Armenia imagine Georgia in fairytale terms which are not real. The opinion that Saakashvili is a democrat is a myth.
- Recently the coordinator of the Armenian National Congress, Levon Zurabyan, made a sensational statement that Armenia has two forces which can compete with the ruling regime – the ANC and Prosperous Armenia. He said that the ANC’s electorate are intelligent educated people, while dissatisfied layers of the population support PA. What do you think about this statement?
- Levon Zurabyan’s statement is no surprise. I have expected this. It is obvious that technologies beat ideologies in Armenia. And not only in Armenia. What should the ANC do? What are their chances? Rely on educated people who support the ANC and gain 5%? The ANC cannot build roads, give expensive gifts or increase teachers’ salaries. The ANC has no financial opportunities, no expert crew, no human resources. The main weapons of the ANC are words, ideology. However, it gains too little today: you cannot get a serious number of votes. They had to do this in 2008, but failed.
Today the ANC cannot fight for power. Thus, the ANC has to unite with a candidate who can be a serious rival to the authorities.
Today the political space of the country is waiting for the results of shadow politics – will Tsarukyan put himself forward for the presidential elections? This is the main question for the internal politics of Armenia.
- Does Prosperous Armenia need the ANC’s support?
- For sure, PA needs the ANC because the difference between the votes gained by Sargsyan and Tsarukyan may be 5%. Therefore, each percentage point will be important. I think Prosperous Armenia will declare its attitude to Zurabyan’s statement after Tsarukyan makes a decision on whether to go to the polls or not.
- How will the events develop if PA and the ANC consolidate?
- We can expect a serious struggle in the presidential elections.
- What are chances of the current authorities?
- The highest. Even if Tsarukyan puts himself forward for the elections and is supported by another force, he can only hope for a second round. If Tsarukyan doesn’t go to the polls, the authorities would gain a huge amount of votes.
