By Vestnik Kavkaza
On December 15, an all-national referendum initiated by Egyptian President Muhammed Mursi will take place in Egypt. According to Mursi, after the referendum the constitution will be the result of the Egyptian revolution of January 25, 2011, and open a new page of the country's history and establish firm democracy. Meanwhile, last week, 1,000 opponents of Mursi gathered in the center of Cairo and accused the president of dictatorship and demanded the overthrowing of the leader. "The revolution is coming back, we will win! We consolidated against the tyrannical regime," the former candidate to presidentship Khamdin Sabbakhi said.
After it some experts began to discuss a new revolution in Egypt. According to Vitaly Naumkin, the head of the Oriental Studies Institute, "Egypt stepped into a period of serious political changes, reformation of the state and social structure, changes in the character of the power, appearance of new elites in the political arena, first of all, Islamists. We know by our own experience that the period of reformation cannot be painless and short. It is connected with internal struggle, interference of external players each of which tries to benefit from the happening developments. We have experienced this. Arab spring, or Arab waking is a long term process which can last for decades, not years. Egypt is a key country, the largest, the most important, the most significant country of the Arab world which is weakened by the last events and faces various internal and external threats, challenges, but demonstrates certain stability."
Speaking about ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to rule Egypt, Naumkin stated: "Many analysts believe that the Muslim Brotherhood should not have illusions on their power in this strong country with high-developed institutes of political life, civil society, where the state system with its courts, military corporation, and security bodies is developed. The biggest achievement by Mursi is what he has done during the crisis in Gaza, i.e. missile attack exchange between Gaza and Israel. Unexpectedly for many analysts Mursi showed himself as an experienced and smart politician who has gained a certain growth of Egypt's prestige. He achieved settlement of the situation, acting together with President Obama and Mrs. Clinton. At the same time, he maintained the course implemented by the previous regime toward the Middle East crisis, acting as a mediator. Previously Egypt was a mediator in the peacemaking process between Fatah and Hamas and between Israel and Palestine. But if earlier the Egyptian regime - and the population criticized it for this (I believe it is one of the reasons for Islamists' victory) - participated in Gaza's blockade together with Israel, as the blockade was not Israeli, it was Israeli-Egyptian, the new power has to distance from this course. That is why what was done toward Gaza - actual partial elimination of the blockade - is Mursi's success. Moreover, elimination of the blockade didn't cause contradictions with the West. At the same time, it was diplomatic success: they managed to prevent the Israeli military operation in Gaza and support Hamas in some extent. Hamas considers results of the events as its victory, even though Israel states that it was a winner. I think Mursi is definitely one of winners as he achieved success in diplomacy."
Commenting on internal political steps by Mursi, for example, extension of his own functions, Naumkin said: "He faces very serious opponents. Amr Musa is an important person for Egypt. I believe, as well as many other people, that he is an outstanding politician and state activist. I can quote one of his statements when answering a journalist's question he said that "the Muslim Brotherhood didn't make the revolution, they stole it." He thinks people are concerned with economic problems first of all - growing prices, unemployment, and so on. And now the authorities should focus not on making the constitution suitable for Muhammed Mursi, but on settlement of issues connected with economic problems of the population. Today Egypt faces serious challenges; a certain struggle began, but I don't think we should make drama out of it. Members of the Constitutional Court has timely frozen their work, stopped fulfillment of the functions, but it wouldn't lead to a civil war. They have to think about providing a pluralistic system for Egypt which has many various population groups, including Christians, Copts, people of various orientations. It is a big population, a large country, and it is difficult to impose any single model on it. Cooperation and peace between these confessional and ethnic-confessional social groups is a difficult and important task. Another important task is to modify the course in the context of the tense Middle East crisis, complex relations with the West and challenges which come from the Arab world. I mean the Syrian problem where Egypt tries to play the role of a mediator; and challenges by such states as Iran which had tense relations with other Sunni major countries. But Egypt tries not to take this or that side and considers Turkey's experience. Turkey began reforms in increasing Islam's role when the Justice and Development Party made Turkey one of top-20 major countries of the world. Then, they took steps on changing the constitutional system. Probably there would be a presidential republic, as Erdogan wants. But it is too early for Egypt to take measures similar to the Turkish steps. Turkish experience is borrowed by Mursi in some extent. But we shouldn't forget that Turkey stayed a secular country, and it is written in the constitution. Nothing has changed in Turkey in this sense."
