Author: Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusively to VK
The Georgian parliament has amended the country's constitution. MPs from the ruling coalition "Georgian Dream" (GD) and the President's United National Movement (UNM) jointly voted for the amendments. The significance of this event for the country's political life is difficult to overestimate. Starting from March 21, 2013, Mikhail Saakashvili finally became a symbolic figure, with no influence on the processes in the country.
According to the norms of the Constitution in force until March 21, the President had the right to dismiss the cabinet of Bidzina Ivanishvili at any time and without explanation and propose a new candidate to the parliament (which has a GD majority). If legislators were to reject the candidacy of the new prime minister three times, the president had the right to dissolve the parliament and appoint "his" acting Prime Minister. This right was limited until the last six months of the President's term, when the president was not allowed to dissolve the parliament, but in any case, the government was left to him.
According to the new version, if the President expresses his distrust in the cabinet of Ivanishvili, he could sign a formal order on his resignation, but in case the Parliament does not agree with the choice of Prime Minister, the former cabinet will continue to fulfil the responsibilities of the government. In the current situation, this means that up to October's presidential election, in which Saakashvili will not be able to run, he has no means of getting rid of Ivanishvili's cabinet.
But as long as Saakashvili had at least a theoretical possibility of influencing the government, the middle and lower-level bureaucrats (including in the security structures) were "stumbling about", scared to make a choice between the two leaders who were in the process of cohabitation. Now they know that "Misha is no longer a real president," i.e. there is no reason to be afraid of his anger and a "second coming".
Moreover, the "de-sovereignization of Saakashvili" is a clear signal toforeign actors. First of all, to Moscow, and also to the Western partners of Georgia. The Prime Minister and his team seem to be saying to all interested parties, "That's it! Saakashvili is over as a political figure, and we can build relationships without taking him into account." The message is up to date given the fact that Russia's leaders have repeatedly made hints, talking about the possibility of improving relations with Tbilisi, that Saakashvili was still the President, and the outcome of his struggle with the team of the Prime Minister was not clear. Thus, there is no reason to make hasty decisions, for instance, about the full opening of the markets to Georgian production, or to meet at a level higher than the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Special Envoy for the Prime Minister for the normalization of relations with Russia.
Another aspect of the event is associated with the decision of the presidential party (at the suggestion of Saakashvili himself) to vote for the amendment. Obviously, without the vote of the deputies from UNM, the ruling coalition would not have been able to change the constitution: GD controls only 93 seats in the Parliament with the necessary quorum of 100 votes. The president's party counts 53 deputies. However, the leaders of GD repeatedly hinted: this figure is inflated, and in fact many "nationals" have already turned against Saakashvili and secretly expressed their willingness to move to a new ruling team, i.e. they are ready to vote for the constitutional changes on the decisive day.
It would seem that the easiest way to prove that the UNM is still a monolith was to put the question to the vote and kill the bill. However, the President and his associates made a more sophisticated move: they offered first to hold a "rating vote," confirmed that the GD was in fact unable to change the constitution without the support of the opposition, and voted for the amendment only after the real-life numbers of Bidzina Ivanishvili's resources in the parliament had been displayed: 93 out of 147 deputies. (Three members of parliament, consisting of 150 members, have positions in the executive branch).
"We were not opposed to the amendments, as we had no intention of dismissing the government, but we wanted to prove that the UNM is not broken and that our party remains a powerful force," President Saakashvili explained. In this sense, the March 21 event got yet another dimension - the end of Saakashvili does not mean the end of his party. Against the background of the ruling coalition , which consists of political forces with opposite ideological and political platforms (from left to right, from liberals to nationalists), the UNM is trying to position itself as a single, consolidated center-right party with a clear program and already-traditional conception of foreign and domestic politics.
Saakashvili's team has already accepted the necessity of his departure, but is trying to use the chance to nominate a new leader. Most likely, the candidate for this role will be the Mayor of Tbilisi Gigi Ugulava or the ex-Minister of Internal Affairs Vano Merabishvili. However, the "historic defeat" of Mikhail Saakashvili was so devastating that the success of the project to change the leader is very doubtful, even despite the undeniable charisma of the alternative candidates. If the implementation of the plan fails, the situation of 1992 and 2003 will repeat itself, when, along with the departure from the political arena of the Presidents Zviad Gamsakhurdia and Eduard Shevardnadze, their parties "Round Table - Free Georgia" and "Citizens' Union of Georgia" were gone forever.
