Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
According to a survey conducted by the U.S. National Democratic Institute (NDI) in March among 3103 respondents, the majority of Georgians support the normalization of Russian-Georgian relations.
65% of respondents believe that Russia is not an enemy of Georgia, while 23% believe that Russia is hostile. The vast majority (63%) of the respondents support the government's efforts to restore rail traffic between Russia and Georgia via Abkhazia, which was interrupted in 1992. The initiative of the former ruling party, the United National Movement (UNM), to write in the constitution that Georgia continues to seek to join NATO and the EU is supported only by 33% of the population, while 42% do not consider it necessary.
Some experts have already claimed that the survey reflects growing pro-Russian sentiment in Georgian society, though some have already called it a sign of "capitulation." Philosopher Zaza Piralishvili has talked about his opinion on the unexpected results with Vestnik Kavkaza.
- Zaza, how would you comment on the results of the NDI survey related to Georgian-Russian relations?
- I do not agree with those who say that the results of the survey demonstrate a defeatist attitude of society. A population cannot have entirely defeatist views. But there are a number of circumstances that have an impact on public opinion. One such factor I would call the promise of the ruling "Georgian Dream" coalition headed by Bidzina Ivanishvil, to improve relations with Russia and abandon hostile rhetoric towards Moscow. It is impossible to argue about this with the new authorities: it is unacceptable to perpetrate hysterical rhetoric against a neighboring country, even a recent war enemy, and fuel extremist sentiments. But, on the other hand, I think that the government of Ivanishvili has lowered precautions and made the average Georgian perceive the events less strongly. However, I am sure this will not last long.
- What do you mean by lowered precautions and making events perceived less strongly?
- It is reflected in the illusion that in fact Georgia and Russia have and have had fundamentally different relations, as well as the causes and consequences of the conflict, than the ones described by Saakashvili. People are beginning to think that the reality was different and that Saakashvili was the one who maliciously escalated the situation. But this is just a temporary confusion. Very soon it will be replaced with other perceptions, more rational and resembling the reality of Russian-Georgian relations.
- Do you not hink that the sentiment which was registered in the results of the NDI survey is largely due to the unsuccessful policy of the previous government led by Mikhail Saakashvili, due to the fact that people are starting to perceive the outcome of this policy as a crushing defeat?
- Certainly! All of this is because of the previous authorities. However, I always repeat the same statement: it is impossible to have an agreement on imperial revanchism, and all the concessions that Ivanishvili is going to accept will be fruitless and futile, whether it is about a railway via Abkhazia or anything else. In response to one concession, a second and a third concession will be asked for, and so on. After all, we are very far from partnership.
But this fact does not prevent Saakashvili's policy with regard to Russia as being assessed as completely counter-productive and ineffectual. Moreover, his policy was detrimental to the long-term interests of Georgia. It has led to the fact that Russia has recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. On the other hand, the policy of unconditional concessions towards Moscow can prove to be just as counter-productive. That is why it is necessary to find a middle ground, which President Shevardnadze was always able to find
- But in the last years of Eduard Shevardnadze's government relations between Moscow and Tbilisi were also rather strained. One can simply recall the long story of the Pankisi Gorge and the Chechen forces entrenched there. On September 11, 2002, President Putin, in fact, issued an ultimatum to the Georgian authorities and warned of the possibility of the use of force...
- Right, but Shevardnadze always managed to find a point of balance. Shevardnadze was a pragmatist, able to cope with his emotions and not take impulsive decisions. He was able to control public opinion and make adjustments to Georgia's relations with its international partners. Although the last year of his presidency, in this sense, was different from the previous ones: age took its toll and Eduard Shevardnadze lost his former gumption. The young politicians who replaced Shevardnadze easily succumbed to the temptation of extremism. But the team of Ivanishvili has the risk of running to another extreme.
- To what extent do you trust the polls conducted by American institutions?
- That is a very appropriate question. These surveys are often highly questionable as to the methods and the published results.
- But why would the NDI falsify the results to show that the vast majority of Georgians are in favor of reconciliation with Russia?
- In order to intimidate certain circles in Washington: to show that if we do not support Saakashvili and his team, pro-Russian sentiments might prevail in Georgia and pro-Russian politicians might come to power there.
