Peter Lyukimson, Israel, exclusively to VK
"The global community should not lose vigilance in connection with the election of the new president of Iran. It should be remembered that the main initiator and inspirer of the Iranian nuclear program is not the president of the country but its spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The new president should be judged not by words but by concrete cases, that is, its relation to the development of nuclear weapons and terrorism. "
This was the first official reaction by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs to Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the presidential election in Iran. In an interview to VK a senior Foreign Ministry official stressed that Jerusalem is extremely worried that the EU and the U.S. will have too high expectations of possible changes in the policies of Tehran. This, in turn, will allow the latter to gain time and to complete the work to enrich uranium to a level sufficient to create nuclear warheads.
"It should be remembered that the president of Iran is a dependent and subordinate figure, and everything will still be addressed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his position is known to us, and changes therein are not expected. We do not want the West to have any illusions on this issue", the source said at the end of our conversation.
At the same time, one of the most influential Israeli journalists Ron Ben-Yishai, close to the authorities, and having close contact with the Ministry of Defence, takes a slightly different point of view. "Indeed, the political strategy in Iran is defined by Ayatollah Khamenei, but the president is also a figure of influence and should not be underestimated”, he says. “The coming to power of Hassan Rouhani shows that Iran, of course, is not going to abandon the path of development prescribed by Islamic fundamentalism, but however, much of the population wants to make this way more pragmatic. We should remember that Rouhani won due to the campaign promises of improving Iran’s situation in the international arena and achieving the removal of sanctions that led Iran's economy to the brink of the abyss. I think he will try to fulfill these promises, and for this purpose Rouhani has no choice but to begin a constructive dialogue with the West and to reduce the degree of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic rhetoric that Ahmadinejad used. Anyway, he definitely will say less nonsense than his predecessor. It is possible that this makes him even more dangerous, but we should not exclude the fact that the policy of Iran will experience a new twist. "
In an article written a few hours after the announcement of the election results in Iran, Ron Ben-Yishai is considering three possible scenarios for future development.
In the first scenario, the West will certainly give the new president time for trying to "get into power" and proceeding to the real power in the country. This period will last for several months, during which, at least, new sanctions against Iran will not be introduced. The latter will use the gain in time in order to speed up work on uranium enrichment and after a few months it will become clear that Iran has finally become a nuclear power, which will fundamentally change the strategic balance in the Middle East.
In the second scenario, President Hassan Rouhani will choose the same tactics as President Mohammad Khatami in 2003, when the Americans invaded Iraq. Following the example of Khatami, Rouhani will slow down the nuclear program in exchange for significant relief of sanctions. But the centrifuges at the same time will continue to spin, and Israel and the U.S. will still have to be ready to strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the enrichment of uranium gets to the "point of no return."
Finally, there is a third scenario. It lies in the fact that Rouhani can really start a real constructive dialogue with the West. It should not be expected, Ben-Yishai writes, that Tehran will accept all of the requirements of Europe and the U.S., but it may accept most of them in exchange for relief or even complete removal of sanctions. In this case, the option of strike on Iran by the U.S. and Israel will be seen as illegitimate. If Iran indeed chooses this way and sticks to it honestly, it can only be welcomed.
However, one cannot exclude the fact that it will be only about an elaborated trap, and simultaneously with assurances about the suspension of the nuclear program it will continue to grow at a heightened pace, and when this becomes known, it will be late to do anything.
"So, no matter what policy is chosen by a new president of Iran, both Israel and the United States should watch it with both eyes (the journalist used the Hebrew idiom "in seven eyes"- PL), so as not to give the international community to fall into such a trap”, Ron Ben-Yishai says in the conclusion of the article.
Given the state of this journalist, it seems that this article has been carefully coordinated with senior Israeli authorities and generally reflects their position.
