Innokenty Adyasov, member of the expert council under the CIS Affairs Committee of the State Duma. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Breaking up the demonstration of people who are dissatisfied with Erdogan’s regime on Taksim Square doesn’t mean the end of the sharp political crisis in Turkey. Apparently, the crisis will grow and lead to changes not only in the internal, but also foreign policy of Turkey, including the post-Soviet space.
We cannot say that the current Turkish premier was a pioneer of promoting Turkish influence on the territory of the former USSR. Actually, right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ankara proposed Central Asian republics become members of the project “Great Turan” – a common space for mostly Turk peoples from the Balkans to western limits of China, oriented on Turkey.
However, Turkish promotion faces the lack of money and appearance of more powerful players in the post-Soviet space: the USA, the EU, China. Then, activeness of Ankara shifted to energy projects by-passing Russia (first of all, Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline). Pan-Turkism ideas paled into insignificance. But when the Party of Justice and Development won the parliamentary elections in 2002, the ideas of pan-Turkism became popular again.
The foreign minister of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu developed the concept of “The Strategic Depth.” Its essence is ringing Turkey with friendly countries which used to belong to the Ottoman Empire and promotion of experience of “Islamic democracy and progress in Turkey” in the Islamic world. Ankara wanted the image of moderate and successful Islamism to be attractive for Muslims of the CIS, including Russian republics.
To promote “the Turkish experience”, Ankara used various tools of “soft power.” According to Turkish experts, the launch areas for promoting “Turkish dream” were regions of Bulgaria populated by Turks and the Crimea which is historically close to Russia, even though the Crimea had never belonged to the Ottoman Empire.
Today Turkish funds on the Crimea generously finance restoration of monuments erected during the Ottoman period, establishing education facilities tutoring in Turkish, building of huge mosques. The idea of not only historic unity of Turkish and Crimean-Tatar people is promoted, but also it is stated that when the Crimea was under the Ottoman Empire, the peninsula experienced prosperity.
Ankara pays special attention to “soft power.” Program documents of the Turkish government say that “due to the rapid growth of economy, scientific and technological potential, human resources, and diplomatic efforts, Turkey turned into a source of “soft power”, which gains more and more support.”
The stable economic growth in Turkey enabled Erdogan to initiate several economic projects which became direct competitors of Russia in promotion of Eurasian integration. In 2009 Ankara initiated the Council of Cooperation of Turk Speaking Countries (CCTSC). The Council included Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan. Turkey provides active involvement of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan into the Council’s work.
In 2012 it was stated that the CCTSC can turn into a Turk “common market.” Turkey is permanently provides the idea of using Latin alphabet for all Turk languages (President of Kazakhstan has already stated about shifting from Cyrillic alphabet to Latin alphabet for the Kazakh language; it puzzled Russia so much).
It seemed influence of Ankara on the CIS would extend, but Turkish dream broke up on the Taksim Square. The majority of the Turkish population, first of all young people and residents of big cities of Turkey, doesn’t like Islamization of all spheres of life. We hope that the wide-scale civic protest in Turkey will stay peaceful (even though there are first victims).
The recent developments in Turkey pose a question to Russia: what can it offer to its partners in the South Caucasus and Central Asia at the moment of “frozen” Turkish influence? The fate of Russian integration projects in the post-Soviet space will depend on Moscow’s answer to this question.
