By Vestnik Kavkaza
Two weeks after the overthrow of Mohammed Morsi acting head of Egypt Adly Mansour said he believes in the restoration of peace in the country and is ready to cooperate with all those who hold this opinion. But Morsi’s supporters continue to blame Mansour in trying to bring the country into chaos.
Over the past two years in Egypt the second revolution occurred, and now observers are trying to understand the reasons for this rapid development.
“The Arab world is in a systemic crisis. The simplest notion of what a systemic crisis is: in the Arab world, you will not find any area of life in which there would not be a huge key unsolvable problem. Therefore, in 2011, the revolution did not happen, it just started. This is my next thesis. Because the life-cycle of every revolution as a phenomenon lasts for about 20-25 years. So it began, and it will end, let's hope, somewhere in 2030”, Shamil Sultanov, president of the Center for Strategic Studies Russia - Islamic World, said. “Every revolution has seven, and some researchers say, eight stages. In Egypt, the revolution has now moved into the third stage, these stages are cyclical in nature, the nature of recovery, reducing the trend, etc. A characteristic feature of each of the revolutions, including the Arab revolution, is that it involves millions and tens of millions of people. This distinguishes it from coups, rebellions, etc. Therefore, in 2011 the revolution began, and in 1952 there was a coup. Not because it shifted Morsi, but because Egypt, in the first place, the heart of the Arab world, is a key country. It provides an example of what will happen in another country, in many other countries. A second point is that one of the most important, perhaps, the most important trend of the Islamic world and the Arab world over the past decade has found its place in Egypt. I mean the strengthening of the Islamic trend.
The problem for the "Muslim Brotherhood" is the following, it also correlates with the general principles of the revolution – you should always, especially in the beginning, as the leader of the process, take into account the fundamental interests of the basic requirements of the social groups and the classes that have supported you. What was supported in terms of foreign policy by the tens of millions of Egyptians in 2011? The three main points. The breaking of the Camp David Agreement, an exit from the sphere of influence of the U.S., and huge support for the Palestinians. None of these three points were not observed by Morsi. What did the supporters of the "Ikhwan" demand in the economic sphere? They demanded even a minimal improvement, even if in the form of hope of improving the socio-economic status. In one year, a year and a half, the number of Egyptians who live on $2 a day, has increased by 20%. If in 2011 it was 40% of Egyptians, by the end of 2012 it is almost 50%.
Usually, again, the background shows that, unless there is a brutal military coup that would claim tens of thousands of lives, and as a result, establish a dictatorship, if this does not happen, then the Islamists, "the Muslim Brotherhood" will go on the offensive”.
Shamil Sultanov told VK about how the events in the Arab world can affect the post-Soviet space.
- Given the mentality of the people of the Middle East, in your opinion, where can efforts to copy the European model of democracy lead?
- At one time in the Abbasid caliphate the Muslim nations were just the most democratic, because there is a principle of 'Shura' in Islam, in which the governor is appointed by the ummah: that is the agreement. From this point of view, the democratic traditions have long existed in Islam. They just do not need to be from copied the West. The West in general should not be copied, and Snowden has proved it.
- Is it possible to draw a parallel between the models of economic development in the Middle East and in the former Soviet Union?
- There is no single economic model, and different countries in the Arab region are differently integrated into the world global economic system. In this sense, what happened in Egypt is a prime example of this. Egypt, with its economic structure, was integrated with a known disadvantage to this world market, without being able to influence it. The Egyptians had to follow the example of the Iranians, who after the 1979 revolution really created their model, as well as the Bolsheviks after 1917.
- How significant do you think was the role of outside forces in the revolutions in the Middle East?
- Internal facts were 70-75%, 20-25% of the rest are external factors. For the first time in the history of the Arab world, in Egypt, the revolution began. There have never been such events in the Arab region, there were always apical coups and clashes between the elites and clans. For the first time, sufficiently educated youth, followed by the middle class, went out to the streets. This is not a permanent revolution - this is only the beginning of a great revolution. A revolution is still great uncertainty and the subjective factor plays the role more here. Let me give you an example: in 1917 the authorities in Russia were the SRs. Their party consisted of 2 million people, and they had leaders who were famous around Russia. Tthere was also the Bolshevik Party, who in March of the same year were 14,000 people strong. But there was a leader, a theory, experience and knowledge. We all know how this ended. Therefore, the subjective factor plays a very important role.
