By Vestnik Kavkaza
On September 5-6 St. Petersburg should host the G20 summit where presidents of Russia and the USA should take place. It will be preceded by the Russian-American consultations on the missile defense on August 9th in Washington. The deputy defense minister of Russia Anatoly Antonov stated after the session of the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels, “the missile defense system is our biggest irritant.”
However, senior researcher of the History Department of Moscow State University Alexei Pilko thinks that the missile defense system is not the only problem between Moscow and Washington. “Russian-US relations are now falling because they are characterized by cycles. Much has been said about the "reset" as a new stage in Russian-American relations, and this term is too inflated. There were a lot of "resets" in US-Soviet relations – these are Roosevelt's "reset" in 1933, the restoration of diplomatic relations, the attempt by Khrushchev and Eisenhower, the 'reset' of 1959 and the discharge in 1970. A cyclical nature of Russian-American relations is present. So I do not think that something depends on Obama and Putin as the two politicians. Our objective is not the same national interests. We have conflict zones.”
“This is the third cycle we are going through. And all of these cycles are calculated with the formula 3+4. We take a point of reference - 1992. Relations are at an overdrive stage, they are thriving. We add three years - 1995, Bosnia, Chechnya. There is a downward trend. We add four years -1999, the Kosovo crisis. The first cycle ended. The second cycle is a meeting between Putin and Bush in Ljubljana in 2001 – this is an overdrive stage. We add 3 years - the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine and a downward trend. We add four years - 2008, the war in South Ossetia. The second cycle is ended. A new cycle begins in 2009, this is the "reset." We add 3 years - 2012, downward trend, elections, opposition, the Magnitsky list.
We add four years to 2012 - 2016. Here's a date for the next major crisis in Russian-American relations. The third cycle will begin in 2016, if the formula 3 +4 works for the third time, as it worked the previous two times. There is a certain cyclicality. Relations cannot be smooth, especially between two giants such as Russia and the United States. There will be problem areas. There will be some time periods when the parties will attempt to negotiate,” Pilko says.
He marked four problems between Russia and the USA
First, this is missile defense. We cannot continue the reduction of nuclear weapons without abandoning the defense by the Americans. It is already threatening our national security. We cannot talk of tactical nuclear weapons as long as there is this issue of missile defense, and it is not clear what we will have as a military balance in Europe.
The next problem is the U.S. attitude towards Eurasian integration. For us it is an important economic project.The attitude of the U.S. administration has been clearly demonstrated at a time when the statement was made by former Secretary of State Clinton. That is a bet on the opposition.
Next, the third problem area is the Middle East, Syria. The decision was made by the U.S. administration, after all, to organize, as the Congress supported this, the supply of arms to Syria.
And the fourth problem, a more global concept that unites all - if we look at what is happening on the international scene, we will see that the time of unipolarity has passed, and Soviet-American confrontation has been replaced by a US-Chinese one. Both sides deny this, and both China and the United States say that there are no problems in the relationship. This is not the case. It is not so clear in the actions that the Americans are moving much of their military forces to the Asia-Pacific region. And this configuration, the new struggles, the new bipolarity will determine the entire international context in the next half century.
“So now Russian-American relations in this view take on completely different shape. The U.S. cannot isolate China without Russia. The system to contain China is built by the United States, and it is like the system which contained the Soviet Union. Look at the Pacific coast of China – there is a chain of U.S. allies there: Japan, with a foothold on Okinawa, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore. Given this line, it is clear that China is now an ocean power. This network of U.S. military bases on the territory of the Allies, and the second tier, on the island of Guam, and the third in Hawaii - they are already built. But the hole in the north and north-east is called the Russian Federation. If Russia is involved in the U.S. attempts to contain China, the isolation of China will be complete. If not, it does not make sense with such a hole. So now both sides - the U.S. and China – will try to attract us to their side. And this also gives us additional problems. By the way, I would in this context look quite differently at the situation with Snowden: the Chinese readily transferred him to us from Hong Kong. The situation with Snowden makes the political leadership of the Russian Federation make a choice, and, maybe correctly, we do not want to make a choice.We prefer to maintain room for manoeuvre,” Pilko thinks.
