By Vestnik Kavkaza
The majority of Russian tourists who have purchased tickets to Egypt and cancelled them are going to Turkey, Tunisia, UAE, Cyprus and Spain. In Cairo, the authorities are already seriously worried about new losses for the tourism industry, which employs about 4 million Egyptians. A week ago, in Egypt for a month a state of emergency was proclaimed, and in 11 provinces a curfew was declared. This decision was made by the power after a clash of the supporters of former President Mohammed Morsi with law enforcement; almost 900 people were victims of these clashes.
Nevertheless, Marina Sapronova, doctor of historical sciences, professor (University) of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), thinks there are no reasons for civil war in Egypt: “Personally, I would divide very clearly what is happening in the Sinai Peninsula and what is happening in Egypt. In any case, the processes that are taking place in Egypt are not directly related to what is going on in the Sinai Peninsula. After all, the fact is that different kinds of extremists and jihadists began to gather in the Sinai Peninsula long ago. If we look for the roots of the fact that the Sinai Peninsula in fact became a hotbed of various extremist situations, the roots of this process go to the Camp David Accords of 1979. After the Israeli army withdrew its troops from the Sinai Peninsula, the area was divided into several areas. Relatively speaking, there were four zones - A, B, C and D. In accordance with these agreements, in these areas the Egyptian army could not increase its military contingent. Moreover, in two areas, in my opinion in areas B and C, the Egyptian army could not be present at all, and so far there are only Egyptian police there, who, among other things, are armed with light weapons. Therefore, the concentration of various extremist groups began just somewhere in the 1980s, and periodically it made itself felt”, she sayd.
According to Sapronova, the revolution in 2011 changed the rules of the game in Egypt, but did not change the nature of the relationship between the political forces that have always been historically present in Egypt: “There are Islamists there, the second political force now are representatives of the former regime of Hosni Mubarak, and the third force that has a real impact on the political process is the army. So the matter is how these political forces will come to an agreement among themselves, because their consensus will determine the further political development of Egypt. It seems to me that now the contours of the future political process in Egypt are already visible. Egypt, I believe, follows “the Algerian version", but not in the sense of the transition to large-scale civil war, but in the sense of the option which Algeria followed in the mid-1990s – in 1995-1996, when a very clear course was determined for the most harsh suppression of all Islamic terrorist groups, while seeking a political dialogue with those who are willing to talk with the military”.
The expert thinks there is every reason to say that in the future the political situation will stabilize: “Now there are no objective or subjective moral, ideological or regional conditions for large-scale civil war, with the tacit approval of the events that are taking place by the world community. We all remember that only two countries have quite sharply reacted to the events in Egypt – these were Turkey and Qatar, which have made very strong statements. The world community was profoundly silent, and only now is there a kind of delayed reaction of the EU associated with the possible introduction of an embargo if the situation does not stabilize, and so on. I think the EU's decision represents a particular message to the Egyptian military, a kind of economic pressure, so that the Egyptian military, the current government in general, do not exclude the “Muslim Brotherhood” from the political process. Because, I think, a major political issue, which is strategic and very important and will affect the future development of Egypt, is whether the "Muslim Brotherhood" will be excluded from the political process, or remain as a legal political party. Very much will depend on how the military now will settle the question. The fact that the EU reacts to it with aneconomic embargo is a certain kind of promise so that the "Muslim Brotherhood" remains as a political organization, and thus the so-called democracy would still be met”.
In this matter, "the Muslim Brotherhood" is actively supported by Ankara. Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc called on Egyptians to restore stability and to hold elections: "We need to make sure that all parties in Egypt are equally represented. We need to ensure that everyone has the freedom to vote. Maybe even a supporter of Mohammed Morsi will win, and such an outcome will have to be respected... For the restoration of democracy in Egypt, it is required to release political prisoners from the "Muslim Brotherhood" and not to consider the prohibition of the movement. "At the same time, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of involvement in the overthrow of the Mohammed Morsi. "The revolution in Egypt is due to Israel, and we have the proof to this. On the eve of the 2011 elections, a representative of French intellectuals, a Jew, told about this. He said that the" Muslim Brotherhood ", even if they win the election, will not remain in win, because democracy is not just electoral process”, Erdogan said.
