Discussions of pressure of Moscow on Yerevan

By Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

Armenia continues discussions about the choice between the Customs Union (CU) and EU association agreements within the Eastern Partnership program. A sudden reaction within political and expert communities was provoked by a recent speech of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, first President of Armenia, leader of the Armenian National Congress (UNC), at the party’s conference. Political consultant Arman Gevorkyan has commented on the approaches of the first president to foreign policy.

- Levon Ter-Petrosyan urged his supporters to avoid anti-Russian outcries due to the developments after the decision of Yerevan to join the Customs Union. He expressed concerns that state propaganda may put a label of Russophobia on the ANC the way some tried to make it look as an enemy of the West. Was it the only reason Ter-Petrosyan made the speech on September 8?

- No, because he was obviously speaking as the head of the party. It was a message to his supporters to show moderation. A political line will be developed at the ANC depending on the impact of his speech. But his speech carries a message addressed to foreign players as well. In particular, when he said that the party should realize that “the ANC was not a marginal, irresponsible element, but instead was a strong institutional political alternative to the government, capable of realizing state responsibility, acting as though it had power.”

First of all, the ANC leader was demonstrating seriousness of the party’s policy as a power capable of keeping a balanced line between foreign players, a power that does not dash from one extremity to another. Secondly, incumbent authorities of Armenia are not a reliable partner due to their eclectic foreign policy.

- What is your evaluation of Ter-Petrosyan’s approaches to foreign policy?

- He reasons from the fact that there is a complex of agreements between Armenia and Russia that Armenia must fulfill. Ter-Petrosyan who signed the Armenian-Russian Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Aid in 1997 and the agreement on the status of the Russian military base in Armenia has chosen Russia as a strategic partner and the Armenian society approved the choice. Moreover, during the parliamentary votes for the agreement on the base, it was the Republican Party of Armenia, which was part of the ruling coalition in 1998, that voted against it. The complementary policy was founded by the first president. Complimentarianism presupposes that, if Armenia has a chief partner, it should consider movements towards the West or, let us say, towards China, with the chief partner.

What happened in terms of the CU? Serzh Sargsyan started the process with the EU without consulting the main political partner. Russia was initially ignored by Armenia. Although the so-called “westerners” are crying out that Russia pressurized Armenia in its choice between the EU and the CU. Yet, they forget about the mistakes made by the official Yerevan.

- How fair are the results of social polls about joining the CU carried out in Armenia?

- For over 10 years, all social polls done in Armenia were incorrect. Why? Because the organizers paid for the polls and bought the results. But the Armenian public is not informed about the processes. The public neither knows what the CU is, nor what is the association agreement of the EU or the free trade zone agreement. Many Armenian citizens look upon these issues from a mundane angle, as an opportunity to visit both Russia and Europe freely. Besides, the expert and the political communities are not informed: not one of the documents has been published in Armenia. Ukraine, for instance, has published all the documents and everyone had a chance to read them.

Due to unawareness, the Armenian public cannot give an answer to the choice between the CU and European integration. That it why all these social polls are incorrect, not to mention the zero level of trust to organizations that organize them.

- What effect will Ter-Petrosyan’s speech make?

- There has already been a negative reaction to mass media, experts and political analysts related to the government. The wise part of the public, having analyzed arguments of the ANC leader, will think about state propaganda that will criticize Russia and, first of all, the Kremlin for pressing on the Armenian government to persuade it to join the CU. It is done to hide own political flaws. In a similar manner, the European political group chose the same line, accusing Russia of pressure on its neighbours. Thus, Europeans do not want to recognize own mistakes the same way.

- At a recent meeting with Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian confirmed readiness of Armenia to develop close cooperation with the EU as actively as possible and will not oppose membership of Armenia in the CU…

- The government of Armenia has not fulfilled its promises to Europeans and searches for compromises now. In reality, no one has ever interfered in political and economic reforms of Armenia. But foreign players prefer to keep Armenia in the hands of weak and corrupt authorities. The problem of fighting corruption and organizing real, not declarative, reforms is a matter of Armenian authorities and it does not depend on the attitude or words of Brussels, Moscow or the IMF. If the authorities find political will for the reform, it will realize it without anyone’s directions. As an example, I can remind about the reform for land privatization in 1991, organized without Moscow, Brussels, WB or IMF. But it is a different story when the land privatization initiative was followed by a deep agrarian reform that has never been realized yet.