By Vestnik Kavkaza
Yesterday, the heads of the member states of the CSTO adopted the document 'On the Situation in and around Syria'. Members of the military-political coalition from Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan agreed that foreign, including military intervention was unacceptable and could lead to a greater destabilization of the situation in Syria and beyond. The CSTO supported efforts to hold an international conference in Geneva, which should establish fundamentals for peacemaking and normalization in Syria, criticized terrorism and violence against the peaceful population and stood against illegal activities aimed at further militarization of the internal conflict in Syria.
President of the Center for Strategic Studies Russia - Islamic World Shamil Sultanov told Vestnik Kavkaza that there is a long way to normalization in Syria. “The sharp destabilization in Syria will continue for at least three years. Why? Because there are some political science models that say that if the war lasts for three years, in order to enter into a stable environment you need a minimum of another three years. But apparently the situation here will be unstable, dangerous, dangerous for the world and the region, and so on for at least seven or eight years. And I think even longer. If you recall in Algeria the situation lasted 10 years, and then another 5 or 6 years were necessary in order to stabilize the situation more or less.
In our interdependent world, everything is connected, necessarily one conflict gives rise to another. The question is this. Everybody seems to be interested, the Americans and us, Beijing and Tehran, that the situation is stable, but the conflict in Syria has now entered a phase where it does not depend on Assad, or Putin, or Obama. It goes through its own channels. This is the worst.”
His pessimism Sultanov explains in the following way: “There is the extremist opposition, 30-35 thousand people. This force, which corresponds approximately to 8 or 10 divisions of a regular army. To defeat them you need 10-12 divisions. These people get money from the Turks, from Saudi Arabia, from Qatar, but they pursue their own aims. To consider them puppets of Qatar or Saudi fat sheiks is wrong. There arises a new galaxy of commanders, of charismatic leaders, in comparison to whom all the moderates are slugs, forgive my language. These are people who are willing to die for their ideals, people who are willing to lose their lives every day. This new power is growing. This new force is amazing, very interesting and very dangerous.”
The former Russian ambassador (1991-1994) in Syria, Alexander Zotov, feels that the both sides of the conflict “are restricted by their own mistakes, thoughtless activities, wrong estimates of the situation.” Zotov reminds that even Soviet-Syrian relations “hadn’t ever been painted in colours of pragmatism, striving for certain clear political and economic interests; our side always put its heart into the relations, as well as our Syrian friends. For Russia, for the Russians it is a special land where natives from our country felt comfortable. It is not an abstract country, an object of a big political game, but our special attitude toward the Syrians. I don’t even mention how hard and how long our people have been working in Syria, created the current infrastructure.”
Zotov thinks that Assad’s regime made awful mistakes at the beginning of the Syrian conflict: “They are connected with the orientation which was developed and provided since Hafez Assad’s era – holding stability, the balance by any means. Often the orientation on the force balance in the region contradicted even our political course, despite close cooperation between Moscow and Damascus. For instance, when in Lebanon the so-called Progressive Front began to win, the Syrian interference returned the force balance, and it was done, when Kosygin flew to Damascus. I was on board together with Alexei Nikolayevich and saw his reaction. I could see face of Andrei Andreyevich Gromyko, when he was moved aside and Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy took place. Being devoted to the orientation on the balance of the situation, the Syrian authorities didn’t service Russian or any other interests, except for their own, even though the Soviet Union and Russia had always been its reliable and friendly partner.”
