Convinced of the ineffectiveness of his meetings in Moscow, Teheran, and Paris, Robert Kocharyan has decided to focus on "internal games".
Apart from the activation of the opposition, March was remarkable in terms of new tendencies taking place in political elites. Public disclosure of Robert Kocharyan's possible return to major politics marked the beginning of political activation.
Criticism of the authorities from Gagik Tsarukyan, a well-known oligarch, and chairman of Prosperous Armenia (PA), a party which is a part of a parliamentary coalition, became the first sign of Kocharyan's possible return. It is worth mentioning that "PA" was a political project of Robert Kocharyan in the Parliamentary elections of 2007. The second sign of his return was a statement from the ex-minister of foreign affairs, Vardan Oskanyan, in which he expressed the opinion that the only way out of the difficult situation in Armenian foreign policy, especially as it concerns the Karabakh problem, is a change of power in the country. As a final point Kocharyan gave an interview to the news agency "Mediamaks", in which he criticized the economic policy of the Armenian authorities and help up as a good example the results of his presidency of 1998-2008. According to Kocharyan, at that time the proportion of external debt to GDP decreased from 43% to 13%, the budget deficit amid economic growth of around 12%-13% was less than 2% and average annual inflation was around 2%-4%. In the 2007 budget, financing for capital construction formed 7% of the total amount, and there was a slight rise in gold reserves. "The country spent less money than it received and saved some for a rainy day. That is what allowed today's authorities to spend some savings and take out an anti-crisis loan", - Robert Kocharyan expressed confidently, pointing out that the most important thing is the readiness to face up to crises in advance.
All these developments resulted in the crystallization of political elites and their split into two coalitions. The first one, headed by Kocharyan, is formed by the Prosperous Armenia Party and ARF " Dashnaktsutyun". Perhaps these powers believe that Kocharyan (who is
considered a stronger and tougher politician then current president Serzh Sargsyan) is able to save the ruling regime, weakened by the impact of foreign political players, who play the card of the Karabakh conflict peace process and normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations.
The present-day authorities have been hit by the world economic crisis, which has badly affected the social and economic situation in the country. Dashnaki expressed their interest in Kacharyan's return, stating that "vital questions" raised by the ex-president need serious
discussion. "Certainly, what he says is unquestionable fact," - claims a member of ARFD, Armen Rustamyan. Another representative of this party declared: Kocharyan is one of those who have excellent knowledge of political back rooms. Moreover, Dashnaki blamed the authorities for not taking into consideration the opinion of the Karabakh side in the peace process. This opinion is shared by the ex-minister for foreign affairs of Armenia, Vardan Oskanyan. However, they forgot that Nagorno-Karabakh remained outside the framework of the peace negotiations during the Kocharyan presidency as well.
The second coalition, represented by the ruling party Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), is consolidated around its leader and president of the country, Serzh Sargsyan. The republicans reacted to the prospect of the "ex-president's return" with caution and some skepticism.
Vice-chairman of the RPA, Ramzik Zograbyan, claimed: "There is no need for the ex-president's return. If we need to, we will appeal to him. I believe that nowadays the Republican Party and the coalition in general has enough resources to keep our election pledges, and we don't need any assistance." Even more undisguised was the statement of Eduard Sharmazanov, the RPA press secretary: "It is a widespread practice for former presidents to express their thoughts on this or that problem. Whether Mr. Kocharyan will return to big politics or not will be his choice". In Sharmazanov's opinion," A wish is not a political category". The Republicans claimed that they were satisfied with the work of the government, headed by Tigran Sarkisyan, and that the state is able to overcome the consequences of the economic crisis. The "Country of Law" Party also supported this position.
In short, the political community of Armenia is not as solid as it was before. So what are the real chances of the second president returning to politics, particularly as Prime Minister?
David Shahnazaryan, an opposition politician opinion, says that in an effort to get into power Kocharyan is trying to use the difficult situation in the Karabakh peace process: " The dream of Kocharyan is to grab power. He gave an interview in which he told the old story of how prosperous the economic situation was during his presidency. He has no political future". Speaking about possible obstacles to the ex-president aims, Shahnazaryan pointed out: "A striped suit. The future of a prisoner is more likely for him". He is speaking of the fact that it is Kocharyan who is blamed for the events of March 1, 2008. This is why experts believe that Kocharyan won't gain support from external political powers. The political observer of "Aikakan Zhamanak" ("The Armenian Times"), Lusine Barsegyan, considers that Kocharyan, being convinced of the ineffectiveness of his meetings in Moscow, Teheran, and Paris, has decided to focus on "internal games".
Some experts think that the return of the ex-president to the post of Prime Minister will result in the resignation of the current president and snap elections, which Kocharyan can win. But the question is whether the ex-president has enough administrative resources to turn
this plan into reality.
