Francois Nikkolo, the former ambassador of France in Iran, Figaro
Sanctions significantly damage Iran. However, it is not the UN sanctions that are dangerous. The sanctions are restricted by spheres of military supplies and nuclear energy. The most dangerous sanctions are additional sanctions by the United States and the European Union which try to make Iran obey demands of the UN Security Council. The U.S. and EU sanctions led to actual isolation of Iran in the trade, banking, and financial spheres. This isolation is choking the Iranian economy.
Meanwhile, President Rouhani was elected because the population believed in his promise to improve people’s lives and loosen the knot of sanctions. To fulfill the promise, he has to reach a settlement of the Iranian “nuclear history” problem through negotiations. In New York, Rouhani tried to make it clear that he wanted settlement of the problem as soon as possible.
So, the West is holding its destiny in its own hands. There is the first option: it can be fulfilled, if Rouhani settles the issue diplomatically as soon as possible, sanctions are loosened, the Iranian economy is being revived. This option makes Rouhani more popular, he gets a green light on the settlement of some other conflicts between Iran and the rest of the world. However, there is another option. Talks linger, the Iranian economy stagnates, the Iranians are disappointed. Conservative forces which have recently failed in the presidential elections, but still have the majority in the parliament, these conservative forces take heart and begin an internal struggle against the government. When Rouhani becomes politically weak, Iran takes the old course of confrontation with its common rivals: the U.S., the UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia.
To implement the first variant and confirm his legitimacy, Rouhani needs only one concession from the West: the West should admit Iran’s right for uranium enrichment. In return Tehran is ready to give any guarantees in the sphere of international control over this enrichment. Iran is ready to set a 5% ceiling for uranium enrichment, i.e. to hold the level which matches industrial, not military goals. If the guarantees are going to work and the world is sure in its security, the knot of sanctions will probably be loosened.
At the same time, we still have no relevant level of trust. The Americans and the Europeans demand from Iran “certain steps” – fulfillment of the UN SC recommendations in 2006, i.e. freezing of the enrichment process for a while.
However, it is well-known that the demand is unacceptable for Tehran. Rouhani stated this after his election. He is experienced in the sphere. Rouhani was the main negotiator on the nuclear problem and he decided to cancel enrichment between 2003 and 2005. In return Iran got nothing. Rouhani has many times been criticized for the concession. His political rivals still remember the story. So, it would be a political suicide for him to stop enrichment this time. Making the Security Council achieve complete cancellation of Iranian enrichment, we, representatives of the West, trap ourselves. Now it is time to admit it.
The general result is the following: to demand from Rouhani that he should make “first steps” without giving him anything in return – the policy has no sense. None responsible politician wouldn’t make such concessions, notwithstanding, the country where he lives. I hope that these elements of common sense would be considered at the upcoming talks with Iran. “First steps” should be made by both sides and simultaneously.
