The legitimization of South Ossetia on the international arena is a question of political manoeuvring and struggle, not an aim in itself.
Even on the first anniversary of the conflict, Russian politicians noted that the intervention of Russia in the conflict had helped improve its position in the Caucasus greatly. Experts questioned by "Baltinfo" differ in their opinion of the timeframe involved, but agree that South Ossetia may join Russia. At the time, the question of defending the independence of the small republic was a principal one for Russia, but whether Russia could get more from the situation is a question.
According to an expert of the institute of National Strategy, Vladimir Gorunov, the decision was correct and necessary, but Russia did not exploit the results of the victory as it could have. Of course, if we did not recognize South Ossetia, it would destabilize the region greatly. But at the same time, Russia didn't prove the need for recognition to its partners. The expert is sure that there are reasons for such a lack of activity. The first is that there are people in the Kremlin who are against the protection of South Ossetia. The second is a commercial one, showing how Russia failed to get allies. The reason Belarus didn't recognize South Ossetia is not due to the bad will of the president, but because Belarus needs gas. But Russia was not ready to be allies that way. Meanwhile, the example of the USA is clear - they spend colossal amounts of money on their allies.
The editor -in-chief of the portal "Vestnik Kavkaza", Aleksey Vlasov, thinks that the problem was not in Russia’s stinginess, but in the aspects of the policies of its allies, which cannot agree with a final victory of Russia in the Caucasus. Mass recognition of South Ossetia will not take place in the near future. It is not economically independent and is now recognized only by some South and Central American states, who want to show up their northern neighbour, the USA. That is why the recognition of South Ossetia is a matter of political games and struggle, not an aim. According to the Political Scientist journal, the geopolitical results of the war are not great: Turkey tends to have a closer connection with Russia, Georgia is in isolation. But on the whole, there was no sensational change. During the Cold War the fight over South Ossetia could have become a culmination, but now it is just a big political manoeuvre, tactically successful, but strategically questionable.
The publicist Mikhail Leontiev adds that the inability to benefit is also caused by a lack of strategy in the post-Soviet territories. In his opinion, this is also the reason for the war. Neither friends nor enemies believed that Russia would take actions to fulfil its promises and defend Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In short, yes, it is a victory. But really it is like a victory in the Paralympics. Yes we fought great, but not like the Olympic athletes, like physically-challenged people. "Considering the question of Ossetia joining Russia, the only problem here is whether we are ready to go on our own, or will always look to the stronger countries," says Leontiev.
Aleksey Vlasov also takes that possibility into consideration. Though even Russia's partners always look to the reaction of the west when making some decisions, Russia can think of uniting South Ossetia. "The main problem is that then the Georgian propaganda would be right about our motives. And a referendum in Ossetia will not prove the opposite," said Vlasov.
Vladimir Gorunov thinks that the more time will pass, the tighter the bonds that will unite the two countries and some day they can be formed officially. From this point of view the project of the "manager from the Kremlin"(head of government of South Ossetia) is very demonstrative. "There were no political motives in his appointment, it was just a three-sided decision between Moscow, Vladikavkaz and Tskhinvali. At that moment, politics was not important," he said.
We must add that the future predicted for Abkhazia is totally different. According to Vlasov, that republic is independent both politically and economically. It is much more stable than South Ossetia and does not need such investments.
Anna Yudina, Baltic Information Agency
