By Vestnik Kavkaza
It seems the concurrency of the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius and a session of the Council of Prime Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tashkent is not accidental. It is likley that Russian diplomats wanted to demonstrate that they are above the fight in Europe and have more important business on November 29th. Premier Dmitry Medvedev will meet his colleagues and together they will adopt a joint final protocol on organizational and financial aspects of functional unity.
At the same time, Alexei Pilko, senior scientist of Moscow State University History Department, notes that “the main problem which will be discussed is what to do after December 2014. Under unfavorable conditions the situation in Afghanistan can influence very negatively and destabilize the whole region of Central Asia. The Afghan topic is very complicated. A lot of factors influence it – the development of the situation in Pakistan, stability of neighboring countries, the U.S.A. policy, because even though America withdraws its troops, this is only by halves.”
Speaking about Washington’s intention to maintain a presence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of their troops, Pilko says: “What will be the aim of the presence, and what do the Americans want to achieve in Afghanistan? Washington doesn’t answer these questions in a satisfactory manner. Moreover, at the moment the U.S. tries, even though they don’t admit it officially, to curb China. Won’t they maintain their military presence in Afghanistan to improve their geopolitical position toward China? A lot of questions exist over Afghanistan. And if the SCO could give adequate answers to these questions, it would become a really serious regional player, the organization which would provide stability in Big Central Asia.”
According to Dmitry Ontoyev, expert of the Socio-Political Studies Center, “China announced a series of big projects in Afghanistan. Perhaps the number of these projects will grow due to the upcoming December 2014, and they will be marked not as bilateral projects, but as projects of the SCO. There are two forecasts for Afghan developments – a negative forecast, when Talibs come in office and destroy the regime of Karzai; and a positive forecast, when Talibs could integrate into the political structure, get some seats in the government and parliament. The SCO can start an unofficial dialogue between representatives of the political forces which can get power in Afghanistan and encourage peaceful succession in 2014. As far as I understand the Western agenda, at the moment integration of Talibs into political processes which happen in Afghanistan is a necessary condition for saving Afghanistan from dissolution.”
Andrey Kazantsev, Director of MGIMO Analysis Center, thinks that “it would be great for a settlement of Afghan problems to access Pakistan, India, and Iran to the SCO. However, there is a strategic struggle between Pakistan and India. India is a rival of Pakistan, while Pakistan is an ally of China. India is a rival of Pakistan and China; the Indian headquarters plans operations against Pakistan and China. There are troops standing in both sides. There are constant clashes between India and Pakistan, which can lead to a war. At the moment there is a Cold War between India and China in boarding areas and in the Indian Ocean. To accept these two countries to the SCO means to make it disable, because it will turn into an arena of fight between these two sides. India is on the one hand, and China and Pakistan are on the other hand. Moreover, it will immediately influence Russia, as we are managed to be friends both with India and China and export arms and military technologies to both countries. So, it is not clear what we should do in case of serious clashes in the SCO.”
