Armenia-Turkey: a vicious circle

Armenia-Turkey: a vicious circle

 

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK

 

The arrival of the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Yerevan to participate in the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the BSEC was at the center of experts’ attention. Before his arrival, the Turkish Foreign Minister said  that Turkey has always attached great importance to the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. The Turkish media reported that in Yerevan Davutoglu will meet with Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and President Serzh Sargsyan during which Davutoglu will try to revive Armenian-Turkish protocols and discuss the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
In contrast to these expectations, Yerevan gave a very cool response to Davutoglu’s visit; the meeting between President Sargsyan and Turkish Foreign Minister was not planned and was not held. The visit of Turkish Minister confined itself to the summit of BSEC. After the completion of the meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey which was planned during the summit, the ministers made no statements. By the arrival of Davutoglu, in front of the hotel "Marriott", which hosted the summit, representatives of the ARF and the Social Democratic Party "Hunchak" organized protest rallies with the requirements of the lifting of the blockade and the recognition of the Armenian Genocide .

 

Observers in Yerevan believe that the arrival of Davutoglu became a tactical move aimed at simulating progress in bilateral relations on the eve of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, but the essence of Turkish diplomacy has not changed. "Today, Turkey is not ready for a u-turn", Deputy Director of the Institute "Caucasus" Sergey Minasyan said.

 

Some experts consider the visit of Davutoglu in a regional context. Turkologist Andranik Ispiryan believes that after the successful visit of Vladimir Putin to Armenia and his statements on the strengthening of Russian influence in the South Caucasus, Ankara's geopolitical position was shaken, and Davutoglu’s visit is aimed to recall about the role of Turkey in the region.

 

The visit itself took place against the background of the recent visible activation of Ankara regarding the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. For instance, during a visit to Switzerland in October Davutoglu said that his country would improve relations with Armenia and open the border if Armenia withdrew its military forces from the territory of Azerbaijan.

 

After the meeting with Davutoglu on December 12, answering reporters' questions about a possible linkage between normalizing relations with Ankara and settling the Karabakh conflict , Nalbandian said: "Armenia's approach, as well as the approach of the international community on the issue of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations has not changed: the relationship must be resolved without preconditions. The attempts of the Turkish side to determine the Armenian- Turkish relations by other issues are meaningless and unsuccessful".

 

It is believed that the normalization of relations between the two countries and the settlement of the Karabakh conflict are two different processes .
On the other hand, of course, Turkey and Azerbaijan ,as allies, harmonize their policies in the region. For Baku, it is unacceptable that the Armenian-Turkish border could be opened, and Turkey cannot take this step, which goes against the strategic interests of Azerbaijan.

 

However, a too frequent use of the border factor by the Turkish side led to its devaluation. Armenia does not attach much importance to this issue. Over 20 years of closed borders, the Armenians have learned to trade, including with Turkey itself, through third countries, and developed new routes and patterns of trade relations with many countries. So Turkey's intention to influence Armenia is inefficient. As a result of these complex relationships there is a vicious circle, and the political process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations cannot move forward.

 

Nevertheless, there is some progress in the relationship – the reduction of hostile rhetoric and increased contacts became positive developments, which, however, have local importance and do not yet have a significant impact on the political process.

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