By Vestnik Kavkaza
Russian citizens think that the most important event of 2013 is the agreement on peaceful settlement of the conflict in Syria. 14% of respondents of a public opinion poll organized by the Public Opinion Fund believe that prevention of military intervention in Syria and the agreement on destruction of chemical weapon there are the most significant global events of 2013.
Meanwhile, in 2014 Syria will probably stay in the headlines. A peace conference on Syria should take place in Switzerland in January. Geneva-2 will be held not in Geneva, but in Montreux. On January 24th the talks will continue in Geneva.
Meanwhile, Russian experts consider the Syrian problem to be of a geopolitical nature. According to Vitaly Naumkin, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the RAS, the situation in Syria has changed radically: “The USA and the UK stated that they freeze arms supplies to the rebels, as troops of the Islamic Front captured depots of the Syrian Free Army. Fights between various troops of the opposition, victims, sharp rivalry became so tense, but today there are people in the USA, including firmer heads of the CIA, who say that victory of Assad would be the most beneficial scenario for the USA in Syria. Two months ago it would have been impossible to hear such a statement from anyone.”
According to Naumkin, the Russian initiative on the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria is beyond the field where it is working: “It is not only the elimination of chemical weapons in Syria, but also a path to implementation of serious Russian initiatives on establishing a mass destruction weapon free zone in the Middle East. When Putin was in Valdai, he said that Israel doesn’t need nuclear weapons at all and Israel should be disarmed. There were no such strict statements before. It is important for the Syrian internal situation as well. Influence on internal Syrian situation is rather big; it prevented a military strike on Damascus, in which American President could be involved, despite the will of his own nation, when about 70% of the population were against it. America is fed up to the back teeth with two wars. There is the Afghan-Iraqi syndrome in the USA and Europe. The situation will develop, according to influence of the syndrome on public opinion.”
Even though the final list of participants of Geneva-2 hasn’t been confirmed yet, but they say that Iran will be among them. The new ambassador of Iran in Russia, Mehdi Sanai, stated: “We believe that the Syrian issue has no military settlement. Several days ago I watched how world leaders, including those who initiated wars in recent 10 years and played big roles in wars, took part in the funeral ceremony of Nelson Mandela. A hope was born in my heart that maybe after this the world leaders would choose a path of dialogue instead of military conflicts… The forces which interfere to the internal affairs of Syria want to overthrow Bashar Assad. Let’s imagine Bashar Assad leaves. If he leaves, is the scenario of the future development of the country clear? The Syrian issue can be settled only through a dialogue. We hope that the Western states will follow their promises, Geneva-2 will take place, and an optimal way out of the Syrian crisis will be found. The Syrian field is a good example of cooperation between Iran and Russia at the regional level.”
