Interview with the general director of the Centre for Studies of post-Soviet States, the editor-in-chief of the "Vestnik Kavkaza" website.
- Mister Vlasov, what do you think about the recent military agreements between Russia and Armenia?
- These agreements have proved that Armenia remains Russia's strategic ally in the South Caucasus.
These agreements must be assessed from the perspective of the political relations between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. That is why it's hard to identify how significant the results are of President Medvedev's visit to Yerevan before he visits Baku. Moreover, there are some rumours that Russia is going to deliver S-300 defence systems to Azerbaijan, which will mean that Russia is diversifying its policy in the Caucasus. In any case, we should wait for the results of President Medvedev's meeting with Ilham Aliyev.
- The Armenian media stresses that, according to these agreements, Russia may support Armenia if a new war in Karabakh starts. Is this possible?
- I have seen the protocol of the meeting and, as I understand it, this decision will be carried out by the member-states of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
President Medvedev's answer was very diplomatic, since after the events in Kirghizia it has become clear that the Collective Security Treaty Organisation is, in fact, inefficient.
I believe that Russia will do its best to prevent such a war, but it's almost impossible for Russia to enter such a conflict taking Armenia's side.
- The Armenian President suggests that parties should follow the Saint-Petersburg agreements that were proposed by Russia. However, President Medvedev emphasizes that it's necessary to solve the problems with the help of the Minsk Group of the OSCE. Does this mean that there is a contradiction between the Russian and Armenian positions?
- It’s true that there is some difference in the formulas. That is why it's necessary to find out what the parties are arguing about.
According to the Armenian media, Russia is trying to become the only mediator in this process. Despite this, I am quite certain that the Minsk Group of the OSCE will still be involved.
This means that the whole argument is, in fact, baseless.
- What issues are going to be discussed during Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan?
- As far as I know, the agenda of the meeting in Baku is already being formed.
I believe that, in addition to the issues of security and energy, the presidents will discuss cooperation between the two countries in the spheres of culture and education.
However, this is not the main point. This visit will show whether Russia and Azerbaijan are really becoming strategic partners or not, whether Russia can maintain its balance between Baku and Yerevan and develop relations with both countries, while still being appreciated by the elite of both countries.
That's a very difficult task. I guess Medvedev and his administration are aware of that. But mutual understanding between Putin, Medvedev and Aliyev will probably make it easier, thanks to this Russia can continue developing its relations with Azerbaijan in spite of the negative reaction of Azeri society and media to the results of Medvedev's visit to Armenia.
- Is it probable that Russia will deliver S-300 complexes to Azerbaijan?
- This announcement has had a mixed reception in the media. According to some Russian officials, it is probable.
The S-300 is a defence complex and it cannot be used as an offensive weapon. S-300 complexes will be used to defend the oil-production centres of the country. That’s it why I believe that delivery is quite possible.
If the deal is made, it will show that Russia is diversifying its policy in the Caucasus. In this case, Russia's partnership with Azerbaijan will become a priority one.
Elshan Rustamov
