By Vestnik Kavkaza
The Ukrainian crisis didn’t influence the intentions of Russia and the USA to cooperate on the Syrian peace efforts, according to Moscow and Washington. However, according to ITAR-TASS, the trilateral meeting between deputy Foreign Ministers of Russia and the USA and the UN special envoy on Syria, Lahdar Brahimi, didn’t take place, even though it could have been held in Geneva. However, Russia believes that the third round of the inter-Syrian talks is necessary.
Alexander Kuznetsov, deputy director of the Institute for Forecasting and Political Settlement, thinks that “we witness the further growth of civil war in the country and the military conflict. At the same time, we can see the confusion of the Syrian opposition. Sponsors and foreign supervisors of the opposition are confused as well. What is happening in the Syrian armed opposition? It is the most interesting subject, as foreign migrant organizations, unfortunately, do not represent anyone today. There are moderate politicians, politicians with whom it is acceptable to talk, but they have no real political potential. The Syrian armed opposition counted on a direct military invasion by the West, as happened in Libya: the launch of a no-fly zone, the bombing of Syria, and so on. When the plan didn’t work, it turned out that the Syrian armed opposition had no Plan B.”
According to Kuznetsov, the armed opposition has spolit into several elements: “For example, the Syrian Free Army could be presented as part of the secular opposition, a secular ideology, but the Syrian Free Army is disintegrating. Part of the group is turning to Islamist radicals. Even though the SFA isn’t turning to the government side, it is ready to cooperate constructively on some tactical matters.
At the same time, there are two radical groups connected with Al Qaeda, which are the strongest segments of the armed opposition – Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
And there is a new group which is well-promoted and initiated by Saudi Arabia – Jaish al-Islam. They are presented as moderate Islamists, but whether they are moderate, nobody is sure. These are the same radicals who state that they will fight the government and al-Qaeda. Whether it is true, nobody knows.”
Kuznetsov states that an attack on Damascus is being prepared from the south: “Training camps of the Syrian armed opposition in Jordan have a capacity of 250 militants every 2-3 months, but Saudi Arabia insists on doubling the capacity. So Jaish al-Islam is being filled with people. We can see an improvement of the armed opposition from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and the USA.”
Answering the question whether direct armed invasion is possible, Kuznetsov said: “The American public opinion is strictly against any military adventures abroad, especially in the Middle East. However, there are factors with could prompt the American administration, as Obama’s rating is very low. He is being attacked from the right and from the left, especially from the right by the Republicans. In this context, to boost his ratings Obama could take this step under great pressure.”
