Turkey in the South Caucasus and the Middle East

Turkey in the South Caucasus and the Middle East

 

By Vestnik Kavkaza

 

In late April Turkey and Armenia, who have no diplomatic relations, while the boundary between them is closed, addressed each other with peacemaking words for the first time for 99 years. Turkish Premier Recep Erdogan expressed his condolences to grandchildren of the Armenians who were killed in the early 20th century. President of Armenia Serge Sargsyan responded that Armenia didn’t consider the Turkish society as an enemy anymore. Experts of both countries perceived statements by their state leaders cautiously. However, Ankara is interested in stability in the South Caucasus today.


Irina Svistunova, senior research associate of the Russian institute of strategic researches, expert turkologist, answered Vestnik Kavkaza’s question whether Turkey and Iran could form some kind of regional organization, which will provide stability: “Such a point of view has a reasonable basis, as historically they have communications with the Caucasian region. In addition to Russia, the two countries that have the closest historical ties with the region are Turkey and Iran. Certainly, Turkey is interested in stabilization of the Caucasian region, as it is a near neighbor, it needs economic development of relations with the countries of the region, in ensuring their security interests. But we know that the approaches of Russia and Turkey to the matters differ a little, meaning that Turkey still declares the territorial integrity of Georgia, that the Georgian-Ossetian, Georgian-Abkhazian conflicts should be solved in this way. Russia takes a slightly different position, but it doesn't prevent us supporting dialogue in this region, looking for possibilities for expanding our contacts.”

 

According to Svistunova, economic progress, demographic growth and relative internal political stability allowed Turkey to set for itself the strategic task of turning into a regional leader and also to strengthen its weight on the world scene as a whole.

 

Speaking about the Turkish role in the Middle East, the expert noted that “various economic and political tools have been applied, which allowed Turkey to strengthen considerably its relations with Middle Eastern countries. In particular, the trade volume between Turkey and the Middle East increased from 6 billion in 2002 to nearly 60 billion in 2013. And such a policy of Turkey generated a set of questions in the minds of both Turkish and foreign experts about whether there was a change of direction of development in Turkey, a reorientation from the West to the East. The Turkish government and political establishment completely rejects such an approach and calls intensification of Turkish foreign policy a normalization, a restoration of the balance broken in the period of the Cold War. Turkey tried to offer a certain Turkish model of development to the Middle East, allowing to connect democracy and Islam, as Turkey sees itself as an Islamic democracy, a democratic outpost in the Middle East, and believes that its experience can be applied to other states. From this point of view, the beginning of the "Arab Spring" in Turkey was apprehended as a unique chance to strengthen Turkish influence in the Middle East as a whole. Due to the establishment's close relations with new regimes, replacing current regimes are still conservative. As considerable pragmatism is peculiar to Turkish foreign policy, Turkey's reaction to the changing regimes in different Arab countries was also differentiated.”

 

Svistunova thinks that “the "Arab Spring" for Turkey was a serious test and weakened its regional position more than strengthened it. Anyway, according to Turkish public opinion polls, regularly carried out in the Middle East, the rating of Turkey in the Middle East has fallen. The Turkish model’s appeal has dropped. At the same time, a certain internal political resistance arose to the policy of the ruling party concerning Syria. There is a request for a change of course. Therefore, obviously if we speak about prospects of how Turkish policy will develop further in the Middle East, first we can note that, no doubt, Turkey will continue its activity, will still seek to strengthen the regional positions, especially as Turkey is convinced that it can have a positive effect on the region and serve its transformation. But at the same time, of course, certain amendments will exist, it is inevitable. There were frictions in relations with Tehran, and in relations with Baghdad too, in connection with Syria. In recent months the ruling party made an attempt to restore relations with Iran but at the same time there is an attempt to iron out and dissolve political contradictions due to development of economic cooperation.”

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